Tuscany: Cattaneo Institute, 'Result consistent with past, abstention hits M5S harder'

Rome, October 14 (Adnkronos) – "In Tuscany, the new center-left (extended to include the M5S) started out with a wide advantage. Throughout the history of the Republic, only in 2020 had the region seemed contestable. But the 2020 regional elections, the 2022 general elections, and the 2024 European elections all recorded a gap of at least seven percentage points between the center-left and center-right, even without considering the possible contribution of the M5S.

In all three rounds of elections, the center-right had obtained around 40% of the vote, while the 'broad field' (center-left + M5S) combined had always obtained around 55%. The results of the 2025 regional elections proved to be in perfect continuity with this balance. This is what we read in the Cattaneo Institute's analysis of the regional elections in Tuscany.

Party votes also remained essentially stable, with little change. The FdI obtained higher percentages than in the 2020 regional elections, when the internal rebalancing within the center-right, to the detriment of the League, was still underway. But it obtained almost identical percentages in the 2022 general election and the 2024 European elections. As had already happened in almost all previous regional elections, the League lost votes to the moderate wing of the center-right, despite General Vannacci's efforts. The PD obtained two percentage points more than in the European elections but the same percentage as in the 2020 regional elections.

In yesterday's elections, Cattaneo also notes, "there was a drastic drop in turnout, compared to the 2020 regional elections and the subsequent general and European elections," with a "15-point drop." However, "this turnout rate is identical to that recorded in Tuscany itself in the 2015 regional elections, as well as that recorded in other regions of Central and Northern Italy in recent years, especially when the outcome was a foregone conclusion." Among voters "who voted for the M5S in the European elections, a higher-than-average abstention rate was recorded."