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Allianz Trade: Global insolvencies to rise 2024% in 11

Milan, 15 Oct. (askanews) – In its latest Global Insolvency Report, leading credit insurer Allianz Trade predicts a gloomier outlook for the global business landscape, with insolvencies set to rise by 11% in 2024 – an even sharper increase than previously forecast. The report highlights key trends and risks for businesses around the world as the global economy grapples with sluggish demand, ongoing geopolitical tensions and uneven financing conditions. A further 2025% is forecast for 2, with insolvencies only expected to stabilize, albeit at elevated levels, in 2026.

In the United States, Allianz Trade expects insolvencies to increase by +12% in 2025, then decrease by -4% in 2026. In Germany, there will be an increase of +4% and then a decrease of -4% in 2026. In France and the United Kingdom, there will be a slight reduction from very high levels (-6% in 2025 for both, against -3% and -4% respectively in 2026). Finally, in China, corporate insolvencies, which are at low levels, will start to increase by +5% and +6% respectively in 2025 and 2026.

In particular, large-value insolvencies have also reached a new record, with Western Europe leading the way, which also poses a serious threat to employment, especially in Europe and North America. By 2025, more than 2 million jobs could be at risk in these regions, marking the highest level in the last ten years.

In Italy, the upward trend in corporate insolvencies seems well established after the last volatile years, with alternating sharp declines and strong rebounds. As in 2023, all the main sectors, except real estate, will contribute to the increase in corporate insolvencies in 2024, with a significant number coming from trade, construction, manufacturing and hospitality. Overall, insolvencies in Italy are estimated to increase by 2024% in 22.