Francesco Megna Topics Covered
THEworld economy struggles to recover. And the trade tensions that have just begun will exacerbate the situation, generating a slowdown. Globally, growth has remained stable during 2024, but current activity indicators point to a Global growth forecasts down. Sentiment analysis of companies shows a drop in confidence while the 'Inflation in some areas is struggling to fall.
A price surge would force central banks to tighten monetary policy and could generate further volatility in financial markets.
How much should it grow and what are the current estimates instead?
THEEU expected to grow by around 1% (+1,3% in 2026), forecast revised downwards compared to three months ago. TheItaly, exporting country, would suffer the pressure from a decidedly protectionist trade area, with a GDP seen from the downside and without taking into account Trump's recent announcements regarding tariffs. Estimates revised downwards also for the United States with a reduced growth compared to the recent past: +2,1% this year, +1,7% in 2026. The Nations implicated in the trade war such as the United States, Mexico and Canada will see strong growth repercussions from the application of tariffs. Reduced estimates also for Canada: 0,6% in 2025, 0,7% in 2026. Forecasts made on the basis of a 25 percentage point increase in tariffs. If these prices were more contained or limited to a stock of goods, the economy would certainly be more robust and inflation more contained.
China is also in trouble
Le trade tensions will also slow growth China: + 4,5% in 2024 and then drop to 4,3% in 2026. The prospects for the Chinese economy could be clouded by significant trade tensions with the United States which have hit Chinese products with duties of up to 20%, leading to counter-initiatives by the Chinese government with duties of between 10 and 15% on certain imports.
Inflation still rising
Inflation is rising again, especially that related to services with an average rate of 3,5% at global level and expected to rise in 2025 by 3,7% and in 2026 by 3,3%. In the Eurozone, inflation forecasts have been revised upwards to 2,3% while in the States to 2,8%.