Adnkronos Washington, Nov. 2 (Adnkronos) – The world is not voting for the president of the United States, but it will have to live with the profound global consequences that the election of Kamala Harris or Donald Trump could have. Consequences for the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, for key alliances such as NATO, relations with European allies, and on the other hand adversary countries such as Russia and competitors such as China. Let's see the positions of the two candidates compared on the hottest foreign policy issues.
Both Harris and Trump believe that the war in Gaza, after more than a year, must end, but they have different positions on how this should happen. The Democrat supports the negotiations that the Biden administration has been carrying out for months, which include a withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Strip and a "clear path" to the formation of the Palestinian state, as part of the two-state solution constantly reiterated by Joe Biden.
During the election campaign, she also took a more clear position against the administration in support of the population of Gaza for the 43 victims, the suffering, the hunger and the destruction they are experiencing. But she does not support the calls for a stop to the shipment of US weapons to Israel, which could create problems with the vote of the left Democrats and Arab Americans.
Trump, on the other hand, does not oppose Israel's military victory in Gaza and does not rule out some form of Israeli control or occupation of the Strip, with the return of settlers. In his first administration, he did not actively support the formation of a Palestinian state, ordering the transfer of the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem and recognizing Israeli control of the Golan Heights, occupied by Syria in the Six-Day War in 1967.
With a conflict that has now been spreading for a month not only to Hezbollah but to the whole of Lebanon, the policy towards Iran of the two candidates is important, especially in light of the risk of an open conflict with Israel, after the recent missile launches between the two countries. Harris condemns Iran's support for Hezbollah and Hamas, but Trump claims to have abandoned the nuclear agreement with Tehran, signed in 2015 by Barack Obama, which did not do enough to stop the "negative influences" of Iran with the support of anti-Israel groups in the region. The abandonment of the treaty has allowed Iran to move forward with the enrichment of uranium, a key ingredient in the nuclear weapons that Tehran aims to.
These elections could make a clear difference in the conflict in Ukraine. Ukrainians fear that, in the event of a victory, Trump, who did not hesitate to say that Volodymyr Zelensky was to blame for the Russian invasion and in the debate in September did not want to say whether he wants a Ukrainian victory, would force them to make a quick peace favorable to Moscow, and for this reason they hope for the victory of Harris and the continuation of US military support.
Trump, for his part, since the beginning of the conflict, which with him in the White House, he says, would never have broken out given his relationship with Vladimir Putin, claims to be able to close it in a matter of days. Harris, on the other hand, said that if Trump had been president at the time of the invasion, "Putin would now be sitting in Kiev" and that the alleged affinity between the tycoon and the strongman of Moscow is a sign of weakness on his part.
Trump has never given details on how he intends to end the conflict, but the Financial Times wrote in recent days that his team is working on a plan to freeze the war, minimize US involvement and transfer much of the economic burden and "supervision" of the peace process to European countries. This would mean creating autonomous zones and demilitarized zones on both sides of the border and without Ukraine joining NATO, thus satisfying Putin's demands.
With whom, according to the revelations of a new book by Bob Woodward, Trump has spoken at least seven times since he left the White House. The Kremlin has denied these contacts, but, when asked directly, the former president responded: "I don't comment on that, but if I had had those talks, it would have been a smart move"
In the eyes of European allies, Harris arrives with the reassurance of being part of Joe Biden's administration, which has directed its transatlantic policy to the slogan "America is back", after the Trump years. But at the same time there is a certain amount of uncertainty about how, in the event of a test of facts, the Democrat, who has not yet made foreign policy decisions of her own, will be able to move in the geopolitical scenario.
On the other hand, the European allies know first-hand Trump's attitude, the continuous attacks on the European Union - with some exceptions, such as Viktor Orban, the Hungarian sovereignist prime minister close to Putin - and also on NATO itself, so much so that some are openly expressing their fear that a new Trump presidency could face the taboo of a US exit from the Alliance.
Even in one of his last rallies, last Monday in Pennsylvania, Trump – who has been a big supporter of Brexit – had ironic words towards "the EU, with all those little countries that are getting together", threatening to make Europeans pay "a big price" in terms of duties, if they continue to "not buy our cars, our agricultural products, while they sell millions and millions of cars in the US". However, it is worth underlining what Politico calls a "difficult truth", that is, that regardless of who wins, Trump or Harris, on November 5 "Europe has already lost" since "American interest in the continent has been declining since the end of the Cold War and neither candidate will be able to bring back the transatlantic era of the early nineties".
Trump and Harris have both taken a tough stance on China, their main rival in trade, defense and geopolitical alliances. They accuse Beijing of stealing intellectual property and unfairly subsidizing the tech and manufacturing industries to the detriment of American businesses.
If re-elected, Trump promises to resume the 'tariff war' he waged against China when he was in the White House, reaching tariffs of up to 60% on Chinese products. But at the same time, he does not hide his admiration for Xi Jinping, like the one he has for all strong men with absolute power that he, he admitted, would like to have even if only for a day. The tycoon called the Chinese president "intelligent", admiring the way he governs "with an iron fist": "He is for China, I am for the US, but apart from that we love each other".
Harris is expected to maintain trade restrictions imposed by Biden, who has maintained and increased some of Trump's tariffs, including 100% on electric vehicles, 50% on solar panels and 25% on EV batteries. But she criticizes her opponent's blanket tariff plan, saying it ultimately translates into a tax on consumers. The Democrat will continue to strengthen diplomatic ties with Asia-Pacific countries to counter Chinese influence in the region, and has expressed support for maintaining the status quo in Taiwan, a point of tension between Washington and Beijing. Meanwhile, Trump's less predictable approach to foreign policy could create tensions with Asian allies, and it is unclear how he intends to manage relations with Taiwan. During his first administration, Washington increased arms sales and military cooperation with the island. But at the same time, the tycoon has said that Taipei should pay the US for military protection.
