Adnkronos (Adnkronos) –
2026 will continue a prolonged series of exceptionally high global temperatures, ice melt, and rising sea levels, and a strong El Niño event is expected to trigger further heat and extreme weather events well beyond 2027, according to a new report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
The UN agency's "State of the Climate Update for COP31" report reveals that the last 12 years have each been the warmest on record; in particular, the last four years occupy the top four positions in this ranking. The global average surface temperature for the period January to September 2026 was approximately 1,47°C higher than the pre-industrial average.
This value is likely to increase further by the end of the year due to the warming effect of El Niño, which has been strengthening since August and is expected to reach its strongest intensity ever recorded by December.
Meanwhile, sea levels reached an all-time high, while sea surface temperatures hit monthly records throughout 2026.
The long-term retreat of glaciers continues: the annual loss of glacial mass in 2025 was enough to fill five Olympic-sized swimming pools every second of the year. Furthermore, freshwater reserves have been steadily decreasing since 2014.
“We have entered a new era of climate extremes. An El Niño event of exceptional proportions collides with a planet already overheated by anthropogenic climate change. Climate records continue to be broken, while the human toll continues to grow. Those who bear the least responsibility will pay the consequences first and most severely. Leaders must take serious action: reducing emissions more rapidly, accelerating a just transition away from fossil fuels, and providing the financial resources and protections needed by the most vulnerable countries,” said United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres.
“El Niño, and the state of the global climate more broadly in 2026, gives new meaning to the term ‘off the charts.’ El Niño does not add new heat to the planet; rather, it releases heat from the ocean, which has reached the highest temperatures ever recorded. There is simply more heat available to release,” said Celeste Saulo, Secretary-General of the WMO. “We are dramatically enhancing our weather patterns, and El Niño will act as a risk multiplier. Heatwaves, tropical cyclones, and thunderstorms are intensifying faster than our historical parameters would have led us to predict. This year, hundreds of millions of people have been exposed to unbearable extreme heat; meanwhile, catastrophic ice and rockfall and flash floods in Nepal have highlighted the combined risks facing communities in fragile, warming, high-mountain environments.”
On a positive note, according to the report, the number of countries reporting having Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems (MHWS) has increased from 56 in 2015 to 136 in 2025. The WMO's 2026 State of the Climate Update was released on the first day of COP31 in Antalya, Turkey. The final report on the state of the global climate in 2026 will be published in March 2027 and will incorporate scientific contributions from dozens of national meteorological and hydrological services, regional climate centers, UN partners, and experts from the WMO community.
GLOBAL TEMPERATURE – The globally averaged near-surface temperature anomaly for January to September 2026 (1,47°C ± 0,13°C above the 1850-1900 average) is comparable to the full-year averages for 2025 (1,43°C) and 2023 (1,46°C), but is lower than the 2024 record (1,55°C). The four-year period 2023-2026 represents the warmest four-year period on record. The El Niño phenomenon is expected to persist until early 2027, the analysis states. This phenomenon tends to increase the annual global mean temperature by about 0,1°C-0,2°C; therefore, the final anomaly for 2026 is likely to be higher than the January-September average. Typically, El Niño has the greatest impact on global average temperatures in the year following its development.
GREENHOUSE GASES – Greenhouse gas levels reached a new record in 2025. Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations increased by 53%, from approximately 278 parts per million (ppm) in 1750 to approximately 426,8 ppm in 2025. Globally averaged methane concentrations increased by 167% since 1750, from 729 parts per billion (ppb) to 1.948 ppb in 2025. Nitrous oxide concentrations increased by 26%, from 270 ppb in 1750 to 339,1 ppb in 2025.
Measurements at reference monitoring stations indicate a further increase in 2026. El Niño events typically lead to a surge in greenhouse gas concentrations.
EARTH'S ENERGY IMBALANCE – According to the report, ocean heat measurements and satellite observations show an acceleration in the rate at which the Earth system is accumulating heat. In 2025, this rate reached the highest level recorded since monitoring began in 1960. Preliminary data for the period January-July 2026 suggest a further record.
SEA LEVEL – In 2026, global mean sea level reached a record high. Sea level rise has accelerated since satellite monitoring began, due to increased melting of glaciers and ice sheets, as well as increased thermal expansion of warming waters. June, July, and August 2026 recorded the highest values since satellite measurements began in 1993. This sharp increase may reflect changes associated with the development of the El Niño phenomenon, including a shift in precipitation from land to ocean in the western tropical Pacific.
OCEAN HEAT ACCUMULATION – Ocean heat content in the top 2.000 meters of the ocean reached the highest level ever recorded in 2025 and, according to preliminary data (updated in July), continued to increase in 2026. Ocean heat intensifies tropical and subtropical storms, accelerates sea ice loss in the polar regions, and, together with the melting of land ice, contributes to sea level rise. This warming is expected to continue for hundreds to thousands of years.
GLACIERS – In 2025, glaciers lost over 400 gigatonnes of ice, an amount equivalent to a sea level rise of about 1 mm. 2025 marked the fourth consecutive year in which all 19 glaciated regions on the planet recorded ice loss. Melting glaciers has consequences for local and downstream geological hazards, ecology, regional water resources and water quality, as well as affecting global energy budgets and sea levels, the WMO highlights in the report.
EXTREME EVENTS – They have impacted lives and livelihoods, compromised food security, exacerbated poverty, and caused population displacement in several regions. According to preliminary estimates, heatwaves, droughts, and forest fires in Europe have caused over 30 excess deaths; at least eight countries have recorded national temperature records, with severe consequences for the agriculture, energy, and transportation sectors.
In April 2026, approximately 146,5 million people in India were exposed to extreme heat due to a heatwave. In late August, a glacier collapse in the Himalayas triggered flash and catastrophic floods in the valley, killing over 1.300 people and severely impacting Nepal's economy. Tropical cyclones have caused devastation and loss of life in numerous countries. The ongoing El Niño phenomenon is expected to act as a multiplier of health risks.
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