Chiara Nava The Council of Ministers has approved the Public Finance Planning Document ( DPFP ) and the budget deviation report, laying the foundation for the next Budget Law. The document updates the macroeconomic and public finance forecasts and incorporates the request to activate the national safeguard clause for increased energy and security-related expenditures.
The request is worth a total of approximately €29 billion over the two-year period 2027-2028 , with a margin of 0,3% of GDP per year for each of the two clauses. Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti spoke of a " particularly complex " context, underlining the difficulties in formulating economic forecasts. The government also revised its growth estimate for 2026 upwards to 1% , while for the following years the policy framework indicates growth of 0,8% in 2027, 0,9% in 2028, and 0,8% in 2029.
Giorgetti: "Defense efforts scaled back."
The government's forecast deviation is distributed between energy and security. Both items are expected to account for 0,3% of GDP in 2027 and 2028. Giorgetti explained that, compared to the assumptions made in previous weeks, the decision was made to scale back the defense budget.
On the public finances front, the planned deficit is projected at 3,4% of GDP in 2027 , 3,2% in 2028, and 2,3% in 2029, including the use of the national safeguard clause. Without the clause, however, net borrowing would be 2,8% in 2027, 2,6% in 2028, and 2,3% in 2029.
For 2026, the deficit/GDP ratio is forecast at 2,9% , while the planned public debt is expected to reach 138,1% of GDP at the end of the year. The Ministry of Economy and Finance's projections then call for 138,5% in 2027, 137,9% in 2028, and 136,6% in 2029.
Meloni writes to the European Commission on the impact of inflation.
In parallel with the presentation of the DPFP, the government continued discussions with Brussels on the flexibility of public finances . Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni sent a letter to the European Commission requesting that the impact of higher-than-expected inflation be considered when assessing compliance with the spending rule. According to Meloni, rising energy prices and inflation could further compress the margins available to support families and businesses.
The prime minister argued that the increased indirect tax revenues generated by inflation should not be used exclusively for fiscal consolidation, but that a portion could be temporarily allocated to offset rising energy costs . The European Commission announced that it had received the letter and would examine it as part of discussions ahead of the next European Council. The discussion is therefore part of the process that will lead to the finalization of the Italian budget and the European assessment of the new budget documents.