Edward Marchesi China's manufacturing PMI reached a new turning point in September, returning above the 50 threshold, a classic indicator of economic expansion. The data comes from two independent sources: the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and the index compiled by RatingDog in collaboration with S&P Global. Analyzing these numbers allows us to understand whether the recovery is organic or stemming from temporary factors, especially given the global tensions that have impacted foreign demand in recent months.
China's macroeconomic landscape, while showing signs of improvement, remains characterized by a series of tensions: pressure on production costs has increased, business confidence has weakened, and manufacturing employment continues to decline. In this context, the two PMIs provide a nuanced reading, highlighting differences not only in absolute values but also in underlying trends, including domestic production, foreign orders, and employment dynamics.
The official PMI surpasses the 50 threshold for the first time since June.
The official index published by the NBS rose to 50,1 in September, up from 49,8 in August, marking the first positive reading since June. The production component rose to 51,7, up from 50,4, indicating an acceleration in production capacity. New orders continued to rise, reaching 50,5, just above the previous month's 50,6.
However, employment deteriorated , falling to 48,4 from 48,7, while export orders continued to contract, reaching 49,2. Meanwhile, cost pressures reached 60,8, the highest level in the last five months, reflecting rising input prices. Business confidence remains at a five-month low, indicating some caution despite the positive signals on production.
RatingDog shows stronger and more sustained growth
The RatingDog manufacturing PMI shows stronger momentum: it rose to 52,1 in September from 51,5 in August, marking the strongest growth rate since April and exceeding the forecast of 51,6. The survey attributes this expansion to solid domestic demand and a recovery in exports, with export sales growing at the fastest pace in seven months. Production also recorded its strongest increase since April, and companies have begun to increase employment, unlike the NBS data. This result suggests that, while official statistics show timid growth, the outlook among industry operators is more optimistic, thanks to a better balance between domestic and foreign demand.
Recovery also in non-manufacturing sectors
The official non-manufacturing PMI also broke the 50 threshold, rising to 50,2 from 49, indicating an expanding trend in the services segment. The construction segment saw a significant jump, from 46,9 to 50,3, a sign of renewed confidence in real estate and infrastructure investment. Services also surpassed 50, rising to 50,2 from 49,3. The RatingDog services index maintained its growth, rising to 51,6 from 51,4. The official composite index , which combines manufacturing and services, rose from 49,5 to 50,7, reaching its highest level since December 2025. These figures indicate that the recovery is not limited to the manufacturing sector alone, but is also extending to construction and services, suggesting a broader revival of the Chinese economy.
Cost pressures and persistently low business confidence suggest the recovery is not without its challenges, but signals from the service sector confirm a broader positive trend. Observers will continue to monitor these indicators to assess whether China can maintain this momentum and translate it into more stable growth over the medium term.