Davide Ruggeri Russian markets saw significant declines after Iran announced that it would Strait of Hormuz It was declared "fully open" for the remainder of the ceasefire. This development, linked to the agreement between the United States and Iran and the simultaneous ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, triggered an immediate investor reaction that was reflected in the main Moscow Exchange indices.
In an already volatile energy environment, Tehran's public communication has impacted the supply outlook, prompting sell-offs in stocks sensitive to crude oil prices and increasing uncertainty about maritime trade flows in the region.
The markets' response was swift: the main ruble-denominated index of the MOEX lost 0,7%, while the index MOEXOG, which groups the sectors oil & gas, led the losses with a 2,7% decline.
Among the individual stocks, the prices of Rosneft have fallen by more than 4%, Gazprom Neft by almost 3%, while Lukoil e tatneft recorded declines of more than 2%. Traders interpreted the news as a possible return to less tense market conditions than in previous weeks, resulting in a portfolio reallocation toward assets less tied to the geopolitical risk premium.
Immediate effect on oil prices
The international price of crude oil has undergone a sharp adjustment: global prices have fallen by more than 11%, with futures on Brent settled around $88 a barrel. This decline continues a series of previous losses and reflects investors' hopes for further talks between the United States and Iran over the weekend. In practical terms, the prospect of greater security along shipping routes has reduced the geopolitical risk premium embedded in prices, making the use of alternative sources or strategic stockpiles less urgent. Price dynamics demonstrate how diplomatic events can have rapid and far-reaching impacts on commodity markets.
Volatility of energy stocks
The energy sector, particularly exposed to news on the Strait of Hormuz, reacted by focusing sales on major Russian producers. The contraction in the sector was anticipated by more nervous trading and wider price spreads on some stocks. The downward movement of Rosneft e Gazprom Neft It reflects both sensitivity to crude oil trends and the perceived operational risk associated with shipping safety. However, analysts remain crucial to distinguish between a short-term adjustment and possible structural changes in global hydrocarbon supply or demand.
The geopolitical context and official statements
The Iranian decision came via a post on X of the Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, which wrote that, "in line with the ceasefire in Lebanon, passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz is declared fully open for the remainder of the ceasefire period." This communication directly links the navigation restrictions to regional truce agreements: the two-year truce between the United States and Iran lasts two weeks and, unless extended, is scheduled to end at midnight next Wednesday; the ten-day pause between Israel and Lebanon expires on April 26. These deadlines remain key issues for operators evaluating future scenarios.
Implications on energy flows
In recent months the actual or perceived closure of the Strait of Hormuz had forced many governments and companies to seek alternative routes and supplies, with effects on the costs and availability of raw materials. In this context, Russia has been indicated as one of the main financial beneficiaries of the imbalances: according to theIEA, Russian revenues from shipments of crude oil and petroleum They rose to $19 billion in March, a sharp rebound from the post-invasion low of $9,75 billion recorded in February. The Kremlin had already stated in early April that the Strait remained accessible to Russian ships, a factor that helped relieve some of the pressure on the country's energy sector.
Perspectives and note on freedom of the press
On the financial side, traders will continue to monitor both diplomatic developments and global demand indicators to assess the duration of the downturn and opportunities for a rebound. If the truce is prolonged or if diplomatic talks reduce perceived risk, we could see a recovery in energy prices and stocks; otherwise, volatility could persist. Finally, it's worth noting that, alongside the economic and financial events, some international media outlets have launched appeals regarding freedom of information in Russia, highlighting how the political climate also influences the media landscape and the ability to report these developments independently.