Edward Marchesi European financial markets are trading cautiously today, with investors digesting the German election results and closely monitoring future economic developments. The AfD's victory in Saxony-Anhalt has created a climate of uncertainty, while Wall Street futures are showing mixed signals.
Oil continues to be a focal point, with Brent crude hovering around $97 a barrel, while tensions in the Middle East raise concerns about possible disruptions to energy flows.
Meanwhile, OPEC+ is keeping its oil production policy unchanged for October.
The impact of the AfD victory on the markets
The far-right AfD's victory in Saxony-Anhalt, with 44% of the vote, confirmed the party's momentum, though it fell short of an absolute majority. The established parties have ruled out any coalition with the AfD, limiting its direct impact at the federal level.
However, investors remain cautious, with European stock markets showing limited movement.
London and Frankfurt fell 0,2%, Paris was unchanged, and Milan rose 0,2%. Wall Street futures showed mixed signals, with the Dow Jones falling 0,4% and the Nasdaq rising 0,3%, boosted by technology stocks tied to expectations of computing power demand for the GPT-6 launch.
Oil and geopolitical tensions
Brent crude oil is trading around $97 a barrel, extending last week's gains. Renewed US and Iranian tensions in the Strait of Hormuz are raising concerns about prolonged disruptions to energy flows in the Middle East. OPEC+ has kept its oil production policy unchanged for October, with the group likely suspending further production increases in the fourth quarter.
Bond yields edged higher, while oil prices slowed, with WTI canceling out gains at $91.50 a barrel and Brent crude slowing to $96.30. BTP and Bund yields rose by about one basis point, with the spread between the two 10-year bonds remaining stuck at 81 points ahead of the ECB's rate hike decision on Thursday and US inflation on Friday.
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On the Milan Stock Exchange, Lottomatica rose 6,8%, following forecasts of an increase in EBITDA, not factored into the synergies associated with the Cirsa deal. Prysmian (+3,1%) and STM (+3,1%) followed, while Amplifon (-2,2%), Diasorin (-2,1%), and Nexi (-1,9%) fell. TIM sold off (-1,5%), with Poste (-0,8%) narrowing the discount at which the takeover bid is still operating.
Among mid-cap stocks, Technoprobe (+3,06%), GVS (+1,57%), Cembre (+1,55%), and Sesa (+1,33%) showed positive performances. The strongest losses were seen in IGD (-1,76%), Danieli (-1,69%), D'Amico (-1,57%), and Reply (-1,31%).