Adnkronos (Adnkronos) –
The risk of Russian action against NATO is real. And Vladimir Putin's attack could take shape "within months, not years." This is the alarm being raised by European intelligence agencies in the scenario outlined by the British newspaper The Guardian. The warning comes after Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk provided Parliament with information on the possibility of a Russian attack—with drones or missiles—against NATO territory in the coming months, demonstrating that Article 5, which requires the entire Alliance to be activated if a member is attacked, "is more theoretical than practical."
The alarm raised by Tusk was defined as "founded and well documented" by French President Emmanuel Macron, who met at the Elysée Palace and informed the leaders of the parties and candidates for the 2027 presidential elections about the concrete threats linked to Moscow's actions.
The Guardian cites the assessments of three senior European intelligence officials. According to Michal Koudelka, head of the Czech Republic's Security Service (BIS), the Kremlin's plans could include a small-scale invasion of NATO territories bordering Russia.
"It's possible. Moscow's strategy could include a limited incursion, provocations, or a "massive propaganda campaign." This scenario could materialize within "months, not years," he added, adding, however, that "many people are doing everything they can to prevent this from happening."
The British newspaper also interviewed officials from the Baltic countries.
"We see no signs of an imminent attack," says Normunds Mezviets, director general of the VDD, Latvia's state security service. "It remains to be seen whether the Russians have direct and concrete plans or whether this issue is part of a broader attempt to spread fear and uncertainty in Western societies. Before 2022, we constantly warned our Western European partners of the Russian threat, but more often than not, our voices went unheard. In 2022, our partners' approach changed: they recognized that the Baltics and Poles were right."
Estonian Foreign Ministry Secretary General Jonatan Vseviov condemns the "social media panic" that has spread in recent days regarding a possible attack. "If there were reasons to fear an attack, rest assured, we would communicate this clearly. Until then, stay calm, move forward, and support Ukraine," he wrote on X.
Russia, from Vladimir Putin on down, has repeatedly stated that supplying Ukraine with weapons, intelligence, and military advisors makes Western countries involved in the war and therefore legitimate targets. Moscow, the Guardia recalls, has so far avoided frontal attacks that could provoke a coordinated NATO response, but has instead focused on hybrid warfare and provocations, which have intensified in recent weeks. The medium-term goal is to weaken Western support for the Ukrainian cause: "The Russians believe that if the conflict escalates sufficiently, European countries will decide to stop supporting Ukraine," Koudelka summarized.
Fears of escalation are intensifying as the UN General Assembly convenes in New York. In the Big Apple, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will meet with Donald Trump after their latest contacts: the meeting, says the Kiev leader, "could change many things. There is diplomatic momentum. I thanked the president for Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner's visit to Kiev. We thoroughly examined key details, and they were able to see the situation in Ukraine firsthand. The path to peace is our top priority. There are ideas for steps toward de-escalation and to address key security issues: energy security, food security, and the protection of human life. We are working together with the American team and are ready to take concrete steps."
In recent weeks, the Trump administration has made a renewed attempt to initiate negotiations to end the war. "I have seen no signs that Moscow is seriously considering the possibility of concrete negotiations," says Thomas Nilsson, head of the Swedish Military Intelligence and Security Service. "In my opinion, the Russians still believe they can achieve their strategic goals. Therefore, the negotiations are just a show." "Now," Koudelka concludes, "every fire or malfunction must be examined by the intelligence services as a possible terrorist attack. And this represents a positive result for the Russians."
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