Adnkronos (Adnkronos) –
Donald Trump is attempting to mediate between Ukraine and Russia to end the war. Volodymyr Zelensky is counting on US diplomatic support to push Moscow to the negotiating table, but he doesn't expect the conflict to end before 2027. Kiev intelligence completes the picture by outlining a scenario that extends to 2028: Moscow is economically much weaker than at the start of the invasion, but Vladimir Putin still has sufficient resources to continue the war against Ukraine for another 18 to 24 months.
The head of Ukrainian military intelligence (Hur), Oleh Ivashchenko, defined the situation in an interview with Ukrinform.
"The main problems facing the Russian economy are the labor shortage, the growing federal budget deficit, and the deteriorating situation in the banking system," he explained. "At the same time, it still has sufficient resources to wage war against Ukraine. We do not rule out that these resources could last throughout 2027 and 2028."
According to Ivashchenko, Ukrainian attacks on refineries, warehouses, industrial and logistics infrastructure are contributing to worsening Moscow's economic difficulties and the Russian deficit, which "today amounts to 82 billion dollars."
Kiev also aims to hinder Russian logistics in the Black Sea, forcing Moscow to resort to more expensive grain export routes. "Russia produces around 130 million tons of grain per year. About 80 million is for domestic consumption, the rest goes to foreign markets. And today this is blocked," the HUR head stated, emphasizing that Kiev views these exports as a source of resources for the economy and, consequently, for the Russian war effort.
The US diplomatic initiative aims to bring the curtain down on the war before 2028.
President Trump's envoys—Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner—are returning from their weekend mission: first, talks in Moscow with Putin, then a stop in Kiev for a meeting with Zelensky. Washington is evaluating possible de-escalation measures between Russia and Ukraine ahead of the winter, in parallel with the resumption of negotiations for a broader peace agreement, Zelensky explained to Axios.
"The message I received is that the Russians are ready to negotiate," Zelensky said, adding, however, that he remains skeptical given Moscow's actions on the ground. According to the Ukrainian president, among the options discussed are agreements "on energy plants and grain shipments, electricity infrastructure, and oil and gas exports." The goal would be to find, before or during the winter, measures that "can bring the parties closer to peace."
Zelensky believes Putin is using the winter to increase pressure on Ukraine, but at the same time doesn't want to irritate Trump. "My feeling is that Putin needs Trump. He doesn't want to anger him," he said, adding that Moscow "truly thinks this winter can help break us" and make Kiev "more willing to compromise." For his part, Zelensky called for security guarantees, economic support, and new sanctions against Moscow: "Putin needs money. Putin wants money to continue the war." "We have September and October to find a way to talk. Without dialogue, we won't get a result," he concluded. "I think President Trump can find a way to truly launch the negotiation process before the cold winter."
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