Bangkok, October 13 (askanews) – The war in Iran and rising energy prices are hitting poorer countries hardest, many of which are already heavily indebted. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warns that several governments will be forced to cut spending or, in the most severe cases, restructure their debt. Petya Koeva Brooks, deputy director of the IMF's research department, sounded the alarm during the annual meetings of the IMF and the World Bank in Bangkok. The problem is exacerbated by the accumulation of public debt and rising inflation, which have followed years of economic crises.
For countries no longer able to service their debt, the IMF indicates the need to intervene without further delay. The warning comes as the IMF has slightly revised its global growth forecast for 2026 upwards, to 3,1%, thanks largely to investments in artificial intelligence.
Growth favors advanced economies and countries involved in technological supply chains, while the poorest and most energy-dependent countries suffer the consequences of the war more. "In the most vulnerable countries, energy and food represent a very high share of household consumption. And so the situation is much, much more difficult," explains Koeva Brooks, "but unfortunately there is no other choice.
I believe an adjustment is necessary. For some of these economies, especially low-income countries, a recommendation we've been making for some time is to try to increase revenues, which we know will be very difficult. "However," he continues, "in some of these countries, we may have already passed the stage where the problem is simply liquidity, right? And when debt is unsustainable, addressing the problem and proceeding with an orderly and timely restructuring is always better than waiting, because the cost of restructuring will be much higher in the future."
Askanews