Adnkronos (Adnkronos) – The Italian weather forecast predicts sunshine and above-average temperatures in the coming days, but a possible deterioration is expected over the weekend. The anticyclone will continue to ensure stable and mostly sunny weather across the peninsula, with particularly high temperatures at high altitudes. From Friday, localized fog and low clouds are expected over the Po Valley, while between Saturday and Sunday, a low-pressure system could favor a return of precipitation, especially in the northwest and some areas of the south.
The current meteorological scenario over south-western Europe is dominated by a vast high pressure field, fed at altitude by air masses of subtropical-maritime origin.
Lorenzo Tedici, media meteorologist at iLMeteo.it, confirms mostly sunny conditions. The most significant aspect will be temperature anomalies at high altitude: the freezing level will rise above 4.000 meters, with highs near 18-20°C even at around 1500 meters. The weather will remain stable across the entire peninsula, with residual strong winds in the south gradually easing.
During the day on Friday, there will be a slight change in circulation in the lower atmospheric layers, with the entry of more humid currents of easterly origin.
This dynamic will favor the formation of localized fog and low clouds over the Po Valley during the night and early morning hours, which will naturally thin out during the central hours of the day. Some localized cloud cover will also affect the areas between Calabria and Sicily.
A reorganization of large-scale meteorological circulation is expected for the weekend.
The elevation along the meridians of the Azores anticyclone towards the Scandinavian Peninsula will trigger the descent towards the south of a depression of cold air at high altitude.
This system will tend to move slowly from central Europe towards France, following a trajectory from east to west defined in meteorology as retrograde motion.
The evolution of this depression is subject to a high margin of forecast uncertainty, a typical characteristic of these dynamics, and will be partially blocked by the presence of two high pressure fields, positioned respectively over the Atlantic and the Balkans.
This blocking of pressure could favor the advance of a low-pressure system toward northwest Italy, fueled by a flow of humid southern currents. The first precipitation could begin Saturday evening in the Piedmont Alpine sector. During Sunday, the phenomena are expected to intensify in the northwestern regions; at the same time, a ventilation system will activate.
Sirocco winds could also bring rainfall to Sardinia and Sicily, subsequently extending to the Ionian areas of Calabria, the Messina area and the Tyrrhenian coast of Reggio Calabria.
An exact estimate of rainfall accumulations cannot currently be quantified precisely due to the high uncertainty in the trajectory of the low pressure system.
IN DETAIL
Thursday the 15th – In the North: stable and largely sunny weather. In the Center: clear skies across all areas. In the South and on the Islands: mostly sunny, with residual strong northerly winds gradually easing.
Friday the 16th – In the North: Local fog and low clouds in the Po Valley in the morning; sunny elsewhere. In the Center: Sunny weather. In the South and on the Islands: Mostly clear skies, except for local cloud cover between Calabria and Sicily.
Saturday 17th – In the North: Clouds gradually increasing in the northwest with possible evening showers in the western Alps. In the center: sunny. In the south and on the islands: sunny, with the first cloud cover and clouds between Sicily and Calabria.
Outlook: Possible instability in the northwest on Sunday; risk of precipitation also in Sardinia, Sicily, and Calabria. The forecast is subject to change.
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