Erika Malandra Friday, November 13, 2026. A date that, at least according to a scientific study published over sixty years ago, should have marked a decisive moment for humanity: the end of the world . The prediction spoke of world population growth destined to reach impossible levels. Today that date has arrived, but nothing similar has happened.
The research, authored by physicist Heinz von Foerster and other scholars, was published in 1960 in the journal Science. And it had a rather explicit title: "Apocalypse: Friday, November 13, 2026."
November 13, 2026, and the end of the world: a prediction based on a population study.
To understand where that date came from, we have to go back to the 1960s.
Von Foerster's work examined the evolution of the world's population over the course of approximately two thousand years. The researchers developed a mathematical model that showed increasingly rapid growth. Continuing along that trajectory, the calculations led to a paradoxical result: on November 13, 2026 , the population would have reached infinity, potentially leading to the end of the world.
It was not a prediction in the usual sense of the word.
No one claimed that billions of people would suddenly appear on Earth or that the planet would be destroyed. That result represented the theoretical limit of a mathematical curve. The problem of overpopulation, however, was real and was one of the issues that most concerned scholars of the time.
For a time, the data even seemed to support that trend… In 1963, world population growth exceeded 2% annually, certainly one of the highest levels ever recorded. But in the following years, the picture began to change. In many parts of the world, birth rates declined, and population growth gradually slowed.
By 2020, the rate had already fallen below 1%. This is a far cry from the 1960s. Even United Nations estimates depict a scenario far removed from von Foerster's: the world population is projected to reach approximately 10,3 billion people by the mid-2080s. Then, according to projections, it should begin to decline. Infinite growth, in short, has remained on paper.
From prophecies to the fear of the Apocalypse: why the end of the world fascinates us
The story doesn't end with a false prediction. There's another interesting aspect: humanity has always tried to determine when its end will come. And it doesn't matter much whether ancient prophecies or mathematical models do it. Even when language changes, fear remains.
Nostradamus, interpretations of the Mayan calendar, and the date of December 21, 2012, are just some of the best-known examples. Every era has had its catastrophic predictions , often tied to current concerns. In the past, it was plagues, divine judgment, and celestial phenomena. In the twentieth century, talk began of nuclear war , overpopulation, and environmental destruction.
Today, fears have other names. Climate change, pandemics, uncontrolled technologies, and the potential risks of artificial intelligence have entered the public debate. Different threats, not necessarily from the same origin or with the same consequences. Yet they often end up fueling a much larger question: how much longer until the end?
Perhaps imagining the Apocalypse is also a way to exorcise a deep-seated human fear: the end. A precise date, a recognizable event, a moment beyond which there would be nothing left. It's an extreme perspective, certainly, but not a new one in history. Each generation tends to view its own difficulties as exceptional. Crises seem more serious, changes more radical... Sometimes we even begin to think the world can't go on like this.
Heinz von Foerster's prediction remains a remarkable episode in the history of science. However, the numbers haven't always followed the trajectory hypothesized in 1960. Behaviors, birth rates, and demographic dynamics have changed. And that's precisely the point: the future isn't always a continuation of what we see today.
November 13 , 2026, was supposed to be remembered as the day marking the mathematical limit of human growth. The date has arrived. Fortunately, however, the end of the world will likely have to wait a little longer.