Andrea Innocenti September 20 , 2026, marked a turning point for German politics in the Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania region . Preliminary results showed the AfD winning 38,2% of the vote, narrowly edging out the SPD , which stood at 35,5% . This confirms the predictions of polls published in previous days and highlights a significant shift in the electoral landscape in eastern Germany.
Official results of the regional elections
In addition to the two main contenders, the vote distributed the following results: the Left Party at 6,5% , the Greens at 5,7% , the CDU at 4,9% , and the BSW at 4,8% . With these figures, the CDU, historically a pillar of German politics, failed to reach the 5% threshold, marking the first time it was excluded from the regional parliament in postwar Germany's history.
Polls analysis and electoral trends
The PolitPro Election Trend model , based on a weighted average of all research institutes, already indicated a lead for the AfD, with 36,5% support, followed by the SPD with 33,3% . Other parties were between 10,2% (Die Linke) and 5,1% (Greens).
The consistency of these percentages, confirmed by the latest polls by Infratest dimap, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen and INSA, demonstrates that the AfD's success is not the result of a sudden leap, but of a consolidated trend.
Exit polls and changes compared to previous elections
The exit poll published by the German television network reported the AfD at 37,9%, the SPD at 35,7% , and the Left Party at 6,7% . In the regional elections , the AfD had obtained 16,7% while the SPD had finished with 39,6% . The AfD's growth of more than 20 percentage points demonstrates an unprecedented capacity for mobilization in this region.
The effect on voters and the CDU's electoral threshold
An analysis by the Infratest dimap institute for the ARD found that approximately 67.000 former non-voters turned out to support the AfD. Furthermore, 45.000 voters historically affiliated with the SPD switched sides. The AfD enjoyed the highest support among voters aged 35 to 44 (45%) and 45 to 59 (47%). Even the youngest age groups, aged 16 to 24, showed a 35% support.
In contrast, the CDU attracted support primarily among those over 70, with 52% of the vote going to the SPD versus 26% for the AfD. The gender gap is equally striking: the AfD received 44% of the male vote, while women favored the SPD with the same 44%.
Prospects for the formation of the government
With the CDU out of parliament, the traditional coalition between the SPD and the Left Party only wins 47,9% of the seats, insufficient for a majority on its own. Monte Carlo simulations conducted by PolitPro show a probability of less than 1% that the SPD or AfD could form an absolute majority on their own. The most realistic combinations involve an SPD government with the BSW and the Greens or a broader majority that includes the Left Party . However, the fragmentation of the vote makes any scenario complex and dependent on post-election negotiations.