Andrea Innocenti On October 27, the Republic of Israel opened polls at 7:00 a.m. (6:00 a.m. in Italy) for the formation of the 26th Knesset , the first election since the October 7 attack. Approximately 7,3 million voters – or 71,15 percent of the total population of 10,305,000 – received their ballots, with the closing time scheduled for 22:00 p.m. (21:00 in Italy).
The electoral context and the forces in the field
Israel's electoral system is proportional, with a closed list and a single national constituency. To enter the Knesset, a 3,25% threshold must be met , corresponding to four seats. Of the 36 registered parties , only a dozen have surpassed this threshold, according to recent polls. The main competition is between Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud and Yashar , the new party called "Straight, Honest," led by former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot.
Main contenders and balance of power
In the most recent poll conducted by Maariv for Lazar Research , Netanyahu's bloc holds 48 seats, while the opposition coalitions total 54, with 14 seats going to Arab parties. Yashar is estimated to have 21 seats, compared to Likud's 19; former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett holds around 15 seats.
The far-right, represented by Religious Zionism and Jewish Power, won 14 seats, while the ultra-Orthodox parties (Shas and UTJ) completed the right-wing coalition.
Tension on the ground and decisive factors
The election campaign was marked by a new military offensive in the West Bank. Following the attack on a checkpoint in Hebron, the area saw a total blockade of Hebron and nearby Halhul, searches, and demolitions. Palestinian authorities denounced "collective punishment," while Israeli forces claimed they were aiming to dismantle terrorist infrastructure.
Voter turnout and postal voting
Analysts expect a 74% turnout , slightly higher than the 70% recorded in the 2022 elections. This increase is attributed to the population's direct involvement in the war and the perception of a national security crisis . However, counting "double envelopes"—votes from soldiers, diplomats, and hospitalized citizens—will take longer and has, in the past, distorted exit poll results.
The path towards the formation of the new government
Once the polls close, exit polls will be released immediately, but the final results will be announced on November 4th. After publication, President Isaac Herzog will have seven days to nominate a candidate before forming a government. The incumbent has 28 days (with a possible 14-day extension) to build a coalition that wins at least 61 of the 120 seats.
Impasse scenarios and possible consequences
If the designated candidate fails to secure a majority, the president will have three days to select another. If the candidate fails again, the Knesset dissolves and a new 90-day election cycle begins. At the same time, 61 members of parliament can petition the president to nominate an alternative candidate.
Among the most controversial issues is the exemption from compulsory military service for ultra-Orthodox men, an issue that has divided the governing coalition and could influence alliances with Arab parties and far-right groups.