Edward Marchesi Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has launched a controversial lawsuit against the platform Meta , alleging that Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp algorithms favored his opponent, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro . The complaint, filed with the Superior Electoral Tribunal (TSE), represents the latest chapter in a dispute that has intensified ahead of the runoff election scheduled for October 25.
Lula's appeal against Meta to the TSE
In the filed document, the Workers' Party accuses Meta of manipulating content visibility, limiting the distribution of pro-Lula posts and amplifying those of the Liberal Party candidate. The alleged violations include blocking advertising campaigns on Instagram and reducing the promotion of institutional messages, as well as the privileged appearance of the Flávio support channel in WhatsApp searches related to Lula.
The TSE has already ordered Meta to ensure equal treatment between the two campaigns, but the company has rejected the accusations, attributing them to technical malfunctions and denying any form of political discrimination.
Lula's electoral strategy and poll results
After the first round on October 4, in which Flávio Bolsonaro exceeded poll predictions, Lula publicly declared that he felt “very good at knockout stages.”
Despite the contrary result in the Datafolla surveys (46% for Lula against 44% for Bolsonaro), his rejection rate remained only 2 points higher than that of the senator (46% against 44%).
The most recent data from PoderData/Aya shows a perfect tie: 50% for each, while the Vox Brasil Institute indicates a slight advantage for Lula (51% to 49%). This narrowing of the margin, from a peak of 6% in favor of Bolsonaro immediately after the first round, represents the smallest difference (1,87%) recorded since the return to democracy.
The decisive role of Minas Gerais
Minas Gerais has traditionally been the national political barometer: since the end of the military dictatorship, the candidate who wins in this state wins the Palácio do Planalto. The result was close, with a margin of 590 votes . Lula triumphed only in the city of Juiz de Fora**,** while the senator won the most populous municipalities in the north, including Montes Claros (about 441 inhabitants).
The Belo Horizonte metropolitan area remains crucial; surrounding municipalities could provide the buffer needed to overcome the threshold of 2,2 million votes missing, the lowest since the post-military era.
São Paulo, the largest constituency
With 21,5% of the national electorate, the state of São Paulo is decisive. Bolsonaro surpassed Lula by 3,4 million votes in the region, thanks to a strong showing in Greater São Paulo, where he won 25 of the 39 municipalities. Lula, however, maintained a slight lead in the overall vote for the entire urban area and defended the state capital.
The electoral model indicates that Lula will have to gain ground in medium-sized municipalities on the outskirts (e.g. Guarulhos Osasco ) and activate his traditional trade union network to counter the growth of the “cinturão vermelho”.
Other variables: abstention and third way
The abstention rate in 2026 reached 21,08% (approximately 33,4 million voters), the highest since 1998. Those over 70, traditionally pillars of the PT, showed little participation (49,1%). An increase in their turnout could tip the numbers in Lula's favor.
Meanwhile, "third-way" voters (candidates excluded in the first round, such as Augusto Cury , Renan Santos , and Ronaldo Caiado ) represent more than 8,7 million potential votes. Cury and Caiado's recent statements in favor of Bolsonaro, combined with Santos's positions, make the direction of this bloc uncertain.