Susanna Riva The first half of next week will mark a marked change in pace compared to previous days, with a decidedly more autumnal weather pattern. The advance of westerly currents will favor the arrival of a well-structured Atlantic low-pressure system , set to affect all of Italy by Wednesday. This phenomenon will be accompanied by heavy rain, southwesterly winds, and a more pronounced drop in temperatures over the weekend.
Arrival of the Atlantic low pressure system: scenario and most affected areas
Monday, October 19: First warnings in the Northwest
According to meteorologist Federico Brescia, Monday will see continued strong unstable conditions in the northwest, with more intense rainfall concentrated in western Liguria. Rain will remain light but widespread in Piedmont and Liguria, while in central Italy, showers will be limited to the Tuscan coast.
The South and the Islands will show signs of instability, especially on the major islands and on the Ionian coast.
Tuesday, October 20: Intensifying rain
The array of westerly currents will push the extensive weather system into the area as early as Tuesday morning, generating continuous, sometimes torrential, rainfall in the northwest. In Liguria and Piedmont, rainfall accumulations could exceed 70-90 mm in 24 hours, potentially creating hydrogeological problems.
Tuscany and Lazio will see worsening weather during the evening, while coastal areas of Sardinia will experience thunderstorms later in the day.
Wednesday, October 21: nationwide distribution
By Wednesday afternoon, the low-pressure system will have covered almost the entire country. In the Savona area, western Liguria, total accumulations could reach 100-150 mm, with localized peaks above 120 mm. Eastern Liguria and the Triveneto region will experience violent thunderstorms, while in the Tyrrhenian region (Tuscany, Lazio) rainfall will be intense but less prolonged. In the south, Campania will experience scattered thunderstorms, with more stable conditions elsewhere.
Effects of winds and waves along the Tyrrhenian coast
During the pre-frontal phase, the prevailing winds will be sirocco and libeccio. In particular, libeccio winds will exceed 40 km/h, increasing sea undulations. The exposed coasts of Liguria and Tuscany could experience storm surges with waves between 3 and 4 meters high, posing a risk to navigation and bathing activities. Local authorities are already being urged to monitor the potential risks of coastal erosion and flooding.
Outlook for Thursday, Friday and Saturday: drop in temperatures and weak disturbance
The passage of the low-pressure system will bring a reversal of the trend starting Thursday: minimum temperatures will drop by 2-4°C, especially in the northern and central areas. The cold front will follow the advance of the low-pressure system, generating clearer but colder skies. A new front is expected to arrive on Friday the 23rd and Saturday the 24th, but it will be much weaker and faster, bringing less precipitation and less intense winds.
During heavy rains and strong winds, it is advisable to limit nonessential travel, especially in areas at greater risk of flooding, such as the Savona area. Local authorities must activate emergency plans for potential floods, ensure coastal areas are monitored, and inform the public about the dangers of storm surges. Monitoring updated forecasts will allow for a prompt response to any changes in the weather.