S&P affirms Italy's sovereign rating at BBB+ with a positive outlook.

Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti welcomed S&P Global Ratings ' decision to affirm Italy's BBB+/A-2 sovereign ratings for both long-term and short-term debt, in foreign and local currency. Commenting on the news, Giorgetti said: "S&P's positive outlook is a good thing; it's further confirmation that we're on the right track." He added: "In such difficult times, a confirmation is a success."

The reasons for the positive outlook

According to the agency's assessment, the positive outlook stems from the belief that Italy's highly diversified private sector will continue to generate current account surpluses , albeit at a slower pace.

The outlook for international trade and energy remains uncertain. One supporting factor is the resilience of goods exports, despite US tariffs. Net external debt is expected to fall below 150% of current account revenues by 2028. S&P believes surpluses will narrow due to energy prices and Asian competition, while maintaining the underlying trend.

Debt, deficit and expected returns

The stabilization of public debt is expected to be less pronounced than previously expected, but remains the cornerstone of the outlook. The higher deficit target set for 2027 , an election year, linked to energy and defense support, along with upward pressure on yields, weighs heavily.

However, the agency forecasts a return to fiscal consolidation after the vote and a reduction in spending related to the Superbonus in 2028 and 2029, although the government's proposal to extend the reimbursement plan could alter its course. The yield on the 10-year Italian government bond (BTp) is estimated at 3,9% in 2026, 4,0% in 2027, and 3,6% in 2028 and 2029.

Substantial risks remain : fiscal space is tight, as the primary surpluses recorded since 2024 are being absorbed by high interest payments.

Economic growth in 2026 is expected to exceed previous estimates, driven by exports and the stimulus provided by the NGEU program . Growth in the period 2027-2029 will remain modest but stable. However, structural challenges remain, such as the aging population and the declining working age bracket, which require a boost to productivity. The labor market appears resilient. With the conclusion of the Next Generation EU plan , these challenges will once again be felt forcefully, according to the source.