Andrea Innocenti The Yemeni conflict, now dragging on for more than a decade, has just taken on a new dimension: the Iranian-backed Houthis have reached a confidential agreement with the United States. In exchange for Washington's promise not to intervene with direct military forces in the Saudi war, the rebels have agreed to guarantee free passage for commercial vessels along the Red Sea.
The news, made public on September 17, 2026, marks a strategic turning point for international maritime routes and power dynamics in the region.
The pact, according to U.S. government sources, was signed at a time when the Houthis are launching an offensive along the Yemeni coast. Their presence has intensified following a series of air and naval attacks, including the use of drones and ballistic missiles against Saudi targets.
Washington's goal is to keep the energy transport route open while avoiding direct military involvement that could expand the conflict globally.
The secret pact between the United States and the Houthis
The agreement provides that U.S. ships can pass through the Red Sea without being blocked or attacked by Houthi forces.
In exchange, the United States agreed not to provide air or logistical assistance to the Saudi-led coalition in its campaign against the rebels. The agreement, still not officially recognized, has been described by American authorities as a "necessary step to ensure the security of sea lanes" and to avoid a military escalation in the region.
The Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a crucial access point connecting the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean, is at the center of concerns: its blockade would have profound repercussions on global oil flows. Under the new agreement, the Houthis would continue to control the surrounding territory, but are required not to impede commercial traffic, thus avoiding more severe international sanctions.
The advance on the territory and the refugee crisis
Meanwhile, the Houthis have made a series of significant gains. After launching a campaign of attacks starting in July, rebel forces took control of the port city of Mokha and, shortly thereafter, Perim Island, located at the entrance to the Bab el-Mandeb. These victories strengthen their ability to influence sea routes and increase pressure on Saudi Arabia.
Testimonies of refugees
The advance operations have taken a huge toll. According to the International Organization for Migration (IOM), more than 82.000 people have been forced to flee their homes since the beginning of the month, including 2.000 who crossed the Gulf of Aden to reach Djibouti. In Taiz, Aisha Muhammad describes her desperation: “ They are being blocked and shot at. Right now, they cannot reach us, and we cannot return to them. This is a trial from God. ” The woman, busy heating water in an old kettle, describes the difficulty of staying in touch with family members trapped in coastal villages.
IOM Director General Amy Pope emphasized that " behind every figure is a family who has lost everything ." Many refugees have crossed the sea with limited resources, driven by hunger and lack of assistance. In Djibouti, refugees are receiving food and water in reception camps, but the country's Finance Minister, Ilyas Dawaleh, warned that the situation is becoming " progressively more difficult " for his country.
Regional risks and future prospects
The Houthi expansion is closely intertwined with Iranian strategy. Following the US-Israeli attack on Iran, Tehran stepped up support for its allies on the Arabian Peninsula, transforming the Yemeni conflict into a "second front" in the broader war against the United States. Control of Mokha and Perim allows Tehran to exert greater influence over the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, threatening Saudi oil exports.
Saudi Arabia, facing a dramatic 95% drop in exports through the Bab el-Mandeb, responded by forming a naval coalition of 14 countries, including Turkey, Pakistan, Egypt, Sudan, and Djibouti. Despite these efforts, the lack of direct air support during recent offensives highlighted the coalition's logistical difficulties. Saudi requests for greater American assistance were met with caution: Washington, engaged in an ongoing conflict with Iran and eager to avoid opening a new front, maintained a "delicate negotiation" stance.
Tensions will continue as the Houthis continue to consolidate control over strategic areas. Their demands could include political recognition, a return to negotiations, and perhaps the payment of compensation. Meanwhile, the civilian population, already suffering from severe food insecurity, risks a new wave of famine if the situation is not stabilized.