Andrea Innocenti On September 15, 2026, Sweden is preparing for a historic moment. The general election could result in a government with far-right ministers for the first time in the country's recent history. Tensions are palpable, with polls indicating a neck-and-neck race between the left-wing bloc, led by Magdalena Andersson 's Social Democrats , and the right-wing bloc, led by Ulf Kristersson 's Moderate Party.
What was considered a foregone conclusion just a few weeks ago now appears to be an uncertain contest. The most recent polls show a minimal gap between the two blocs, with the Liberal Party having surpassed the 4% threshold needed to enter parliament, a factor that could significantly influence the final outcome.
A complex electoral system and the challenge of small parties
Sweden's electoral system is based on proportional representation , with 349 seats up for grabs in the Riksdag . To gain representation, a party must surpass the 4% threshold of the national vote. This mechanism could play a crucial role in such a close election, where even a small shift in votes could make a difference.
With nearly 8 million registered voters and a traditionally high turnout of over 80%, Swedish elections are a momentous event. This year, a record number of people cast their ballots early, with the option to change their minds and vote again on election day.
The Rise of the Far Right and the Consequences for Europe
One of the most discussed aspects of this election campaign is the possible inclusion of the Sweden Democrats (SD) in the government. Kristersson has stated that, if victorious, he would give the Sweden Democrats key ministries, an unprecedented step for Sweden. This has raised concerns among the opposition and abroad, with Andersson warning that a government with far-right ministers would be a radical change for the country.
Kristersson, however, maintains that collaboration with the Sweden Democrats over the past four years has led to positive results, such as reducing crime and immigration. Jimmie Åkesson, leader of the Sweden Democrats, sees these elections as an opportunity for his party to assume government responsibilities, aiming to become the dominant party in the next elections, scheduled for 2030.
Security, Economy, and Sweden's Role in Europe
In addition to the far-right issue, the election campaign saw heated debate on issues such as security, the economy, and Sweden's role in Europe. Both candidates emphasized the importance of continuing support for Ukraine , a particularly sensitive issue for Sweden, which has a long history of conflict with Russia.
Andersson criticized Kristersson for alleged ties between a Sweden Democrat official and pro-Russian groups, while Kristersson questioned the left-wing bloc's commitment to NATO , of which Sweden joined only two years ago. Both candidates have promised to improve the healthcare system and address the cost of living, issues central to Swedish voters.
The outcome of these elections will have repercussions not only in Sweden, but throughout Europe, where the debate over the far-right's integration into mainstream politics is at the forefront. With polls indicating a 70% chance of a left-wing victory, albeit a decline from a few weeks ago, election night promises to be intense and full of surprises.