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President Donald Trump is grappling with the aftermath of the Republican Party's significant defeat in the US midterm elections, evaluating the strategic direction to be taken in the conflict against Iran, which began eight months ago. The US electorate has expressed clear opposition to this military operation, a factor that has contributed to the Democratic candidates' success.
Vice President J.D. Vance called the conflict a catastrophe for the GOP.
"What J.D. Vance said is largely true," Trump admitted to reporters at the construction site of the new White House ballroom, the day after the Democrats' so-called "blue wave." He also acknowledged that rising gas prices had weighed on the vote: "Gas prices have gone up in the short term, and that's probably why."
But he has shown no intention of reconsidering his decisions: "I would do it again. Iran cannot be allowed to have a nuclear weapon. It was worth it; we had no choice." The hostilities have caused regional damage estimated at tens of billions of dollars, triggering systemic repercussions on global energy costs.
Analysts outline several options for the administration.
Haggerty suggests maintaining the current strategy, characterized by defensive strikes and a naval blockade. David Schenker, former Assistant Secretary of State, suggests the possibility of striking the Pickaxe Mountain nuclear facility, followed by a de-escalation aimed at reaching an agreement that restores freedom of navigation and eases sanctions. Schenker warns, however, that the Iranians may believe the president is wounded and constrained by Congress, but the opposite could also be true. Further escalation would pose significant risks to energy prices, although the Brent crude market fell below $95 after the vote.
Regional leaders are closely monitoring the White House's moves. Benjamin Netanyahu has called for new military action, while Middle Eastern officials report signals from the Trump administration regarding a possible intensification of post-election operations.
Steve Bannon, Trump's former adviser, repositioning himself as an authoritative voice on the Maga podcasts, has called on Trump to appoint a presidential commission to investigate and make public its findings on the US war with Iran, arguing that this is "necessary to regain the trust of Americans." Speaking on his podcast 'Bannon's WarRoom,' the former adviser stated that "we need a presidential commission, composed of American citizens and institutions, to formally investigate what happened on October 7th. If the Israelis don't want to do it for political reasons, that's their choice: it's their country." "However," he added, "we were dragged into this affair, which had a significant impact on what was a historic night (the midterm elections) for American politics."
Bannon argues in his podcast, relaunched by the Washington Post, that "we then need to examine how, years later," on October 7, 2023, "we became involved in Operation Midnight Hammer, followed by the second phase: regime change." "Our defense, our national security, and our understanding of how this whole thing unfolded, as well as the impact it had," on the outcome of the midterm elections, "must be examined by a third party, independently, and we must move now." The former White House chief strategist suggests that "many Americans, including young people who voted for Trump on the promise of no new war, are distrustful of the reasons given so far to explain the conflict" against the Iranian regime.
Iranian reactions to the results of the US midterm elections highlight a distinction between two implications of the outcome: a political cost, which Tehran claims to have imposed on Trump as a consequence of the conflict. And a shift in the balance of power between the parties, which should not be taken as a guarantee of a change in US policy. This is the interpretation of Qatari broadcaster Al-Jazeera, according to which the Tehran regime believes that weakening the president in Congress is not, in itself, sufficient to end the war.
After all, the broadcaster notes, Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei declared: "If there is still anyone who harbors even the slightest hope that the behavior of the 'hegemonic system' can change—or that internal political and party changes can alter it—or who believes that making concessions to the United States can divert them from their hostility toward the Iranian people, well, they are completely delusional." This position sets limits on Iranian expectations regarding the election results; it reiterates the argument that American hostility goes deeper than simple party rivalry, and rejects the idea that offering concessions could induce Washington to backtrack on its policies toward Tehran. This comes as Iran marks the anniversary of the 1979 storming of the US embassy in Tehran, with official events and public demonstrations held under the auspices of the 'National Day of Struggle Against Global Arrogance'.
This dual interpretation, claiming victory while remaining cautious about the possibility of real change, has been clearly evident in reports and analyses published by Iranian media. The Tasnim news agency, Al Jazeera reports, was among the most explicit in linking the midterm election results to the ongoing confrontation with Tehran, headlined its commentary: "Trump lost to Iran... and resoundingly in the Senate, too." Tasnim, historically linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, frames the tycoon's defeat as further evidence of what it calls "an Iranian victory."
However, toning down its assessment, Tasnim emphasized that "there is no point in placing hopes in the Democrats, as the two parties do not fundamentally differ in their attitude toward Iran," arguing that "Tehran does not orient its policies based on the party that holds power in Congress or the White House." In a more forceful tone, IRIB radio and television station ran the headline: "Regime change in America... Trump's heavy defeat in the congressional elections." The term "regime change" was used to refer to a change in the majority in Congress, not to describe a change in the American system of government.
An analysis by the semiofficial Fars news agency, titled "The Fall of the 'Red Walls': Why Did Trump Lose Even in His Own Strongholds?", focused on the erosion of the president's base within traditional Republican bastions. The analysis suggests that discontent with his performance has spread "far beyond his usual detractors," including segments of the electorate that had previously contributed to his election to the White House.
The paper attributes this decline to rising living costs, economic concerns, and discontent with the administration—including its approach to Iran. However, the analysis cautions against reducing the causes of the defeat to the "Iran factor" alone, instead framing the result as the product of "an interaction between domestic and foreign policies and their overall impact on voters."
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