Adnkronos (Adnkronos) – Un conflitto difficile da contenere. Poche alternative. In ballo petrolio, turismo, investimenti, modernizzazione e tanto altro. Da un lato gli Houthi dello Yemen, che da anni l’Iran è accusato di sostenere, dall’altro la vicina Arabia Saudita. Nel mezzo, nuove sfide per la sicurezza della monarchia del Golfo e per i piani ambiziosi del principe ereditario Mohammed bin Salman che vuole trasformare l’economia del regno, ma oggi avrebbe poche valide opzioni per gestire il dossier.
E’ l’analisi del Wall Street Journal dopo gli attacchi incrociati tra sauditi e Houthi e mentre – scrive il giornale – l’Arabia Saudita sta esaurendo gli intercettori necessari per rispondere agli attacchi degli Houthi, che – sottolinea anche il New York Times – hanno colpito al cuore le ambizioni di Mbs. Dopo i recenti attacchi, l’Autorità generale saudita per l’aviazione civile ha confermato la sospensione delle attività nell’aeroporto internazionale King Khalid di Riad senza precisare quando riprenderanno.
La capitale saudita dista centinaia di chilometri dal territorio controllato dagli Houthi in Yemen.
Dopo aeroporti e infrastrutture energetiche, anche i data center emergono come potenziali obiettivi, proprio mentre il regno scommette sull’intelligenza artificiale, scrive il Wsj, con il conflitto che sta mettendo a repentaglio il lavoro dell’Arabia Saudita per fare del turismo un pilastro dell’economia.
Secondo il giornale è sempre più a rischio una conferenza internazionale sugli investimenti prevista per fine mese. Dal 26 al 29 ottobre è in programma a Riad la decima edizione della Future Investment Initiative.
"The events of the past few weeks are serious," and "our response must be serious," said Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister, in remarks during the 25th WPC Energy Congress underway in Riyadh, reported by al-Arabiya satellite TV. How MBS handles the matter will have consequences far beyond the kingdom's borders, the WSJ highlights, noting that Saudi Arabia is a major source of funding for the global tech industry and artificial intelligence projects. This is without even considering its alliance with the US and its military implications.
According to Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, a Persian Gulf expert at Rice University's Baker Institute, quoted by the WSJ, MBS has few viable options because "any military response" risks turning into greater involvement in "an asymmetric conflict in which the Houthis have proven capable of inflicting significant and symbolic damage."
Analysts, the NYT also highlights, believe it has become increasingly difficult to reach a political solution with the Houthis as their demands have become more stringent, while a successful attempt to defeat the group militarily is unlikely. The Houthis, the newspaper notes, have little to lose after years of conflict and are hardened by battles with more powerful adversaries.
According to F. Gregory Gause of the Middle East Institute, quoted by the NYT, "the only realistic solution for the Saudis is an end to the war between Iran and the US," which would need to convince Tehran to commit the Houthis to "an end to hostilities as part of a comprehensive agreement." But, he noted, "unfortunately for the Saudis, it's unclear how much Trump is listening to them on this point." According to Yasmine Farouk of the International Crisis Group, the Saudi authorities will likely seek to weaken the Houthis before negotiating an end to the conflict.
Projects designed to demonstrate the kingdom's modernization and attract investment and tourism include Neom, the "city of the future," and the "transformation" of the desert into ski slopes. And, the WSJ writes, while rising defense and infrastructure costs threaten to undermine the economy's diversification program, many of MBS's massive projects are stalled or under review.
Riyadh is on high alert. According to WSJ sources, MBS is moving between heavily guarded buildings and bunkers, with a highly select escort. The 41-year-old prince's last public appearance was on Tuesday, when he donated blood to support a nationwide campaign, the newspaper reports. In 2015, the crown prince involved Saudi Arabia in the Yemeni civil war, supporting the internationally recognized Yemeni government, which is fighting against the Houthis.
The latest escalation between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis began in the summer, when the Houthis—part of the so-called "axis of resistance"—accused the Saudis of bombing the airport in the Yemeni capital, Sana'a, which has been in Houthi hands since September 2014, while an Iranian plane was attempting to land. The incident erupted while MBS was working to contain the conflict with Iran, the WSJ reports, and Saudi Arabia, sources say, was struggling to cover its territory with air defense. According to sources, while supporting continued economic pressure on Iran, MBS reportedly told his advisers to keep diplomatic channels open with Tehran. Then, from spring to summer, the Houthis took on a harsher tone, and according to some sources, the kingdom's intelligence indicated that the Islamic Republic was actively pushing them to go to war, but some Saudi officials believed the Houthis had already suffered significant damage in the past.
In August, the Houthis launched an offensive to seize territory along the coast, facing the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb, and the kingdom, concerned about the risk of further escalation, did not send air support to its Yemeni allies. The port city of Mokha fell, as did key coastal positions, increasing the threat the Houthis pose to Saudi Arabia's oil business. The kingdom receives significant military support from the US, the New York Times continues to highlight. And, the WSJ's sources claim, it is seeking air defense systems and foreign fighters to recruit to aid its Yemeni allies while assessing whether there is room for a diplomatic solution to the conflict, the consequences of which, meanwhile, continue to be felt in Saudi Arabia and Yemen, with Iran expressing its "deep concern" and offering to "facilitate dialogue between the parties."
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