Susanna Riva A low pressure area is forming over the Tyrrhenian Sea, generating a disturbance that will spread across much of the peninsula over the next three days. The result will be a cycle of instability with rain, thunderstorms, and the return of snow at Alpine and Apennine altitudes.
Rainfall distribution from November 6 to 8
On Friday the 6th, rain will first arrive in the Northwest, with accumulations of 10 to 20 mm in 24 hours, with local peaks of 30 to 40 mm in Liguria and Piedmont. From there, it will spread toward Central Italy, hitting Tuscany, Umbria, and Lazio (15 to 25 mm), and finally the South, where Campania, Tyrrhenian Calabria, and Puglia will record 15 to 30 mm, with possible rainfall of up to 60 mm.
On Saturday the 7th, activity will be concentrated on the Adriatic coast between the Marche and Abruzzo regions (15-25 mm, peaks of 30-40 mm) and will remain intermittent in Campania, Puglia, and Calabria (10-20 mm). By Sunday the 8th , most of the country will be dry again; only Puglia and Calabria could see residual rainfall of 10-15 mm.
Details for the Northwest and Central
In the Northwest, coastal areas of Liguria and Piedmont will experience brief but intense showers, while the inland areas will remain mostly cloudy. In Tuscany, Umbria, and Lazio, rain will be more widespread, accompanied by isolated thunderstorms in the most exposed stretches of the Tyrrhenian Sea. Maximum temperatures will range between 11°C and 15°C in the North, 13°C-17°C in Central Italy, and 17°C-21°C in the South.
Snow on the Alpine and Apennine plateaus
Thanks to decreasing geopotentials, snow levels will stabilize around 1500-1600 m across the central-western Alpine region, with estimated accumulations of 25-35 cm above 2000 m. Along the central Apennine ridge, the snow level will shift to 1900-2000 m, with 10-15 cm of fresh snow on the ground. These conditions will persist until Saturday, especially in the higher elevations.
Wind and storm surge
Winds will initially be from the Sirocco, then shifting to a Mistral, with gusts estimated between 45 and 60 km/h in the western and southern basins. Waves will rise significantly: the sea will be very rough, with sea levels between 1,5 and 2,2 m in the Tyrrhenian Sea and the channels of the Major Islands. Civil Protection authorities have already issued hydrogeological warnings for areas at risk of flooding and landslides.
Starting Sunday the 8th, the return of an anticyclonic promontory will ensure clear or partly cloudy skies across most of the peninsula, with more widespread sunshine in the north and center. Residual rain will remain limited to Salento and Ionian Calabria (5-10 mm). During the night and early morning, calm winds will favor the formation of widespread fog in the Po Valley and central valleys.