Edward Marchesi On October 4, 2026, Brazil will hold the largest general election in its recent history: more than 158 million citizens—nearly 71% of the total population—will be called to the polls to elect president, governors, senators, representatives, and state assemblies. The mandatory vote is administered by Justiça Eleitoral , which has distributed over 560.000 electronic ballot boxes in more than 5.500 municipalities.
Women represent 52,84% of the electorate, while those over 60 are 37,5 million, 23,6% of the total.
Leading the race are two names: current president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers' Party (PT), who is seeking a fourth non-consecutive term, and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party (PL), son of former president Jair Bolsonaro.
According to the latest Datafolha survey, with 55,6% of the votes counted, Flávio obtained 49,17% of the valid votes against Lula's 42,01% , indicating a possible advance to the runoff on October 25.
The profile of the contenders: Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, 80, aims to consolidate the social gains of his second term, leveraging the reduction of unemployment and the broad network of income redistribution programs.
At the same time, he faces widespread perceptions of rising living costs and concerns about food price inflation. Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, presents himself as the bearer of his father's hard line, proposing tougher policies against organized crime and a review of public debt, but without providing a detailed plan for reducing the deficit.
The economic and social proposals
Both candidates have announced plans to address public debt , but Reuters analysis highlights gaps in both Lula and Flávio's proposals, leaving complex political decisions open. Lula emphasizes the need for investment in infrastructure and the fight against poverty, while Flávio promises tax incentives for businesses and measures to contain state spending. The debate is pervaded by concerns for families, with 2,3 million more voters than Flávio, many of whom are sensitive to rising prices for basic goods.
The institutional landscape and electoral challenges
The October 4 vote isn't just about the presidency. A portion of the Senate (54 of the 81 seats) and all 513 federal deputies will be up for election. At the state level, 27 governors and 1.059 members of the legislative assemblies will be elected. The electoral system combines a majority vote for candidates with a proportional quota for party lists, making parliamentary composition crucial to the future head of state's ability to implement his reforms.
The fight against abstentionism: the role of the Church
Ahead of the polls, the bishops of the Northern Region 1, which includes Amazonas and Roraima, have launched a social media campaign urging the faithful to participate. The video by Cardinal Leonardo Steiner , Metropolitan Archbishop of Manaus and President of the Ecclesial Conference of the Amazon, ends with the appeal, "Don't miss your vote," emphasizing civic duty as a tool for defending democracy, the Constitution, and national sovereignty, especially in the Amazon region.
If none of the thirteen presidential candidates wins an absolute majority in the first round, the top two will face off in the runoff on October 25th. The most recent simulations show an extremely close race, with Lula at 48,5% and Flávio at 48% , confirming that the final outcome will also depend on the dynamics of the gubernatorial and parliamentary elections.