Adnkronos (Adnkronos) –
A weekend of severe weather and cold is approaching Italy: two waves of icy air from northeastern Europe will cause temperatures to plummet, with rain, thunderstorms, and strong winds, especially in the Adriatic regions, central and southern Italy, and Sicily. Heavy rain is expected on Sunday, with accumulations of up to 60 millimeters, and snow in the Apennines, even at altitudes of 1.000 meters.
Here is the weather forecast for October 31st and November 1st.
Lorenzo Tedici, meteorologist and media manager at iLMeteo.it, confirms that the continental baric structure will undergo a marked change during the weekend of October 31st and November 1st: the dynamics will be driven by a blocking structure characterized by a large anticyclonic area positioned between the Iberian Peninsula and Denmark, with surface pressure peaks located between the United Kingdom, France and Germany, contrasted by a stationary cyclonic circulation between the Hellenic Peninsula, Turkey and the Black Sea.
This configuration will favor the opening of a corridor of cold currents of Arctic-continental origin, originating between Finland and western Russia, headed towards the Mediterranean basin.
This flow will cause a significant decrease in temperatures across much of the country, with both minimum and maximum values dropping, by Sunday, approximately 3-4°C below the climatic average for the period.
After a Friday with some unstable weather in the eastern sector and the southern peninsula, the first more organised showers will arrive on Saturday 31 October in the central-southern regions and on the two major islands, with rainfall estimated at between 5 and 15 mm/24h.
The most unstable period will, however, occur during the day on Sunday, November 1st: the entry of other cold air masses over the Mediterranean will favor the deepening of a low pressure center with the development of organized thunderstorm systems between Romagna, Marche, Abruzzo, Molise, Puglia, Campania, Calabria, Sardinia, and Sicily, with cumulative rainfall locally of up to 50-60 millimeters in the space of a few hours, especially along the Adriatic coast and the Lower Tyrrhenian Sea.
Dry weather conditions will prevail in the rest of the country, albeit with temperatures that will be cold at times for the period, with highs even lower than 14-15°C.
To assess the hydrogeological and hydraulic criticalities associated with storm events, please consult the official Civil Protection bulletins.
The transiting low-pressure system will be accompanied by sustained northerly winds, with gusts of north-easterly wind and north-westerly wind estimated at 50-60 km/h in the central-southern basins and Tuscany. Seas will be very rough or locally rough offshore, with significant wave heights of 1,5-2,5 meters, peaking at 3 meters offshore.
The cold influx will also cause a sudden drop in snow levels. In the central Apennines, flakes will reach altitudes between 1000 and 1200 meters, particularly between Sunday evening and the early hours of Monday, affecting the inland areas of Marche, Abruzzo, Molise, and Lazio. In the southern mountains, levels will remain above 1400 meters. Snowfall at altitudes above 1000 meters will also affect the central and eastern Alps.
This cold and unstable configuration will also characterize the start of next week in Central and Southern Italy, before a progressive attenuation of the cold influx expected from Wednesday.
IN DETAIL
Friday the 30th. In the North: stable weather with large sunny spells; cool in the early morning. In the Center: partly cloudy skies on the Adriatic coast with isolated showers, sunny elsewhere. In the South and on the Islands: cloud cover between Puglia and the Ionian coast of Calabria with light, isolated showers; northeasterly winds with gusts of up to 30-40 km/h; seas to rough with wave heights of 1 to 1,5 meters.
Saturday 31st. In the North: Partly cloudy skies; light snowfall in the central-eastern Alps above 1000 meters. In the Center: Scattered rain along the Adriatic coast between the Marche and Abruzzo regions (5-15 mm/24 hours); clearings in the Tyrrhenian areas. In the South and the Islands: Unstable weather with scattered showers in Puglia, Campania, Calabria, Sicily, and eastern Sardinia (5-15 mm/24 hours); northerly winds strengthening with gusts up to 40-50 km/h.
Sunday 1. In the North: Dry conditions but with scattered clouds; cold weather with highs below 14-15°C. In the Center: Showers and thunderstorms in Romagna, Marche, Abruzzo, and Molise (up to 50-60 mm in a few hours); snow levels dropping in the evening to 1000-1200 meters. In the South and on the Islands: Widespread precipitation, including thunderstorms, in Puglia, Campania, Calabria, Sicily, and eastern Sardinia (locally 50-60 mm); strong winds with gusts up to 50-60 km/h and very rough to choppy seas (waves between 1,5 and 3 meters).
Outlook: Persistent cold north-easterly currents and residual instability in the south through Tuesday; progressive weakening of the cold influx and gradual rise in temperatures starting Wednesday.
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