Edward Marchesi Natural gas priced € 101,45/MWh on the Amsterdam TTF exchange , down 2,4% from December futures contracts. The previous week, it had risen 5% to €103/MWh.
Production cuts in Norway: the Oseberg case
At the same time, the Norwegian company Gassco has announced a limitation of activity at the Oseberg field for today and tomorrow.
The partial outage will result in a reduction in supply of approximately 17,7 million cubic meters of gas.
How it affects European demand
This reduction, albeit temporary, comes against a backdrop of growing demand, fueled by a colder-than-expected winter and lower-than-seasonal storage inventories. As of October 18, European Union gas reserves stood at 74,6% of total capacity, compared to a five-year average of 89,2%.
Intesa Sanpaolo's forecast for next winter
Intesa Sanpaolo 's analysis indicates that, in the worst-case scenario, gas prices could reach €140/MWh in the fourth quarter of 2026, with electricity prices exceeding €210/MWh . Even in the most moderate scenario, gas prices are expected to be around €126/MWh and electricity around €175/MWh in the first quarter.
Risk factors
Geopolitical tensions, attacks on energy infrastructure in the Middle East, and the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine continue to limit the restoration of supply. Furthermore, negotiations between the United States and Iran and negotiations between Moscow and Kiev remain stalled, maintaining high levels of uncertainty on the market.
Repercussions for Italy and Europe
Italy, which imports 73,9% of its energy needs, remains particularly vulnerable. According to estimates, the average national electricity price could reach €140/MWh , after the €210/MWh forecast for the final quarter of 2026. Fuel costs, particularly diesel, could also experience further increases due to seasonal demand.
The recent drop in gas prices to €101,45/MWh offers a brief respite, but long-term forecasts suggest a further costly energy winter for European consumers and businesses.