Susanna Riva The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has released its latest forecasts for 2026, highlighting a context of still high but declining inflation and moderate global growth. The document, included in the new edition of the World Economic Outlook, warns of new risks arising from the conflict in the Middle East and the energy dependence of many economies.
At the same time, the rapid development of artificial intelligence is introducing a dynamism that could support the recovery, but also generate uncertainty if expectations about its impact were to decline.
Italy's inflation forecast and comparison with European partners
According to IMF projections, Italy will close 2026 with an average annual inflation rate of 3,3% , slightly higher than the euro area average, estimated at 3,1%.
The report, however, points to a marked cooling in the next two years, with inflation expected to fall to 2,8% in 2027, aligning with the average of major European countries. Among other members, Spain emerges as the hardest hit by the energy shock, with a forecast of 3,7% for 2026 and 2,7% for 2027; Germany is expected to record 2,7% in 2026 and then rise to 3,1% the following year, while France stands at 2,4% and 2,2%, respectively.
Global growth, the Eurozone and the dangers of energy
The IMF raised its global growth forecast for 2026 to 3,1%, a slight but significant revision from the previous 3,0%. This boost is attributed primarily to the resilience of advanced economies and the massive influx of investment in artificial intelligence . For the eurozone, growth remains subdued at 1,1% in 2026, with a very modest acceleration expected for 2027. The document emphasizes that energy costs, driven by the escalation of the war between the United States and Iran, continue to weigh on consumers and businesses, keeping inflationary pressure high and limiting central banks' ability to reduce interest rates.
Impact of the US War on Iran
The conflict between the United States and Iran that began in February has increased oil and refined product prices by between 70% and 95% compared to pre-war levels. This increase translates into estimated inflation of 3,6% in the US for 2026 and 2,8% for 2027, above the European average. The IMF warns that gas inventories in many European regions remain below seasonal averages, making the market extremely vulnerable to adverse winter weather conditions.
Split Scenario: War vs. AI Boom
The report describes a dual scenario in which persistent geopolitical tension collides with the rapid boom in artificial intelligence . On the one hand, nations dependent on energy imports, especially low-income ones, risk finding themselves in a position of increased vulnerability. On the other, countries actively participating in the AI supply chain—such as Taiwan and South Korea—could benefit from faster growth, estimated at 2,1% for advanced economies in 2026. IMF Chief Economist Tenreyro warned that a prolonged conflict in the Middle East could further increase inflationary pressures, slowing the global economic recovery.
At the same time, global growth remains moderate but supported by technology investments, while energy risks continue to pose a significant obstacle to price stability and consumer confidence. Economic policymakers will need to balance prudent monetary measures with targeted fiscal interventions to mitigate the effects of the energy crisis without compromising the labor market recovery.