Adnkronos (Adnkronos) –
L’affluenza record è, per ora, l’unico dato chiaro delle elezioni in Israele. In attesa dei risultati definitivi, il quadro è all’insegna dell’incertezza in una Knesset senza una chiara maggioranza. Il Likud del premier Benjamin Netanyahu si avvia ad essere il primo partito, ma l’opposizione guidata da Gadi Eisenkot potrebbe avere più seggi in un paese che rischia di non avere un governo.
I 61 seggi necessari per formare un esecutivo non sembrano alla portata dei due blocchi principali.
Lo schieramento che fa capo a Eisenkot, secondo gli exit poll dell’emittente N12, otterrebbe 52 seggi alla Knesset. Per il blocco guidato da Netanyahu, 50 seggi. I partiti arabi – Lista Unita e Ra’am – arriverebbero nel complesso a quota 18.
Secondo gli exit poll di Channel 13, invece, 53 seggi per il blocco di Eisenkot, Netanyahu a 50 e partiti arabi a quota 17. Il Likud, secondo i principali exit poll, si confermerebbe il primo partito israeliano con 24-27 seggi (24 attribuiti da Channel 12; 25 da Kan e Channel 13 e 27 da Channel 15).
Al secondo posto Yashar di Eisenkot che secondo i principali exit poll ottiene dai 20 ai 23 seggi (20 per Channel 15, 21 per Kan, 22 per Channel 12 e 23 per Channel 13). Al terzo posto, arriverebbe B’Yachad di Naftali Bennett e Yair Lapid con 12-15 seggi (12 seggi per Channel 12, 14 per Kan e Channel 13 e 15 per Channel 15). In base ai primi calcoli, appare evidente che Eisenkot avrebbe bisogno dell’appoggio di altre formazioni per formare un esecutivo: l’ipotesi di un’intesa con i partiti arabi è stata pubblicamente bocciata da diversi esponenti dell’opposizione guidata dall’ex capo di Stato maggiore.
Turnout reached 77,7%, the Israeli Election Commission announced, explaining that 5.695.682 people cast their ballots. This is the highest figure since 1999. In the last election, in 2022, 70,6% of eligible voters cast their ballots. The complete count will likely take a full day: the spotlight will be on 650 votes, those of diplomats abroad, sailors, and IDF soldiers. But also those of hospitalized patients, for example. Almost a tenth of the votes were cast on a ballot placed in a double-sealed envelope, which could delay the counting process and therefore lead the Israeli Central Election Commission to not announce the results until Wednesday evening, as well-informed sources in Israel explained to Adnkronos.
When President Isaac Herzog signs the election results, a new phase will begin: the 90-day window to form a governing coalition will begin, and during that time, the current government will remain in office. "The initial exit poll results indicate a complete lack of confidence among the majority of Israeli citizens in Netanyahu and the responsible October 7 government," Eisenkot said after polls closed. "If these results were confirmed, it would be a victory for Israel's Zionist and national majority," the former Chief of Staff added, referring to the exit polls. "I will act immediately to implement the will of the people, replace the Netanyahu government, and form a Zionist government committed, as soon as possible, to implementing compulsory military service for all," he said, expressing his hope for the beginning of a new phase. "The left's celebrations are premature. The arrogance of partisan commentators is ridiculous. One thing seems certain: Likud is the largest party in Israel," Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar replied to 'X.
“Make no mistake: Netanyahu's bloc has suffered a heavy defeat,” says Yair Lapid, founder of Yesh Atid, who allied himself in Byachad with Naftali Bennett. “It's a complete collapse” of Netanyahu's bloc, and “the voters told them to go home,” adds Lapid. This sentiment is shared by Yaor Golan, leader of the Democrats. “The people have spoken, they have ousted the Netanyahu government. We have a historic opportunity to form a real government of change in Israel, and we don't intend to let it slip away. We represent an extraordinary people, who have fought in the streets for four years, donated to the party, and have actively worked to convince voters,” Golan says, adding that “we will do everything possible to ensure the formation of such a government. We are ready to work with all our partners, to fill the gaps, and to assume our responsibilities. The people have spoken. Now it's up to us to do our job.”
In theory, Netanyahu and Eisenkot could seek a compromise for a national unity government between Likud and Yashar. This idea was roundly rejected by Israel's National Security Minister and Otzma Yehudit leader, Itamar Ben-Gvir, who holds six seats. "Unfortunately, I hear talk of a national unity government with Eisenkot, the same scenario I warned against and which our friends in Likud were quick to deny, saying 'it's not true.' And now, two minutes after the exit polls were released, we hear talk of a national unity government. This would be a government of paralysis."
In a still-fluid scenario, Mansour Abbas, leader of the Arab Ra'am list, says he's been contacted by figures from both pro- and anti-Netanyahu political blocs. "Everyone is contacting us, not just those from the 'change bloc,'" he told Channel 12, implying that members of the pro-Netanyahu bloc have also contacted him.
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