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Israele va alle urne oggi 27 ottobre per le elezioni in un clima di fortissima tensione, con il primo ministro, Benjamin Netanyahu, impegnato in una difficile battaglia per la sopravvivenza politica e la Cisgiordania nuovamente al centro di una violenta escalation. Il paese va al voto per rinnovare i 120 seggi della Knesset, con la sfida serrata tra il Likud del primo ministro e Yashar, la formazione guidata dall’ex capo di Stato maggiore Gadi Eisenkot, mentre l’opposizione cerca di costruire un’alternativa alla coalizione di destra e ultradestra al potere.
Urne aperte dalle 7 ora locale, le 6 in Italia, e chiusura alle 22, le 21 in Italia. Alle urne chiamati oltre 7,3 milioni di elettori.
A irrompere nella fase finale della campagna elettorale è stata soprattutto la crisi di Hebron, dove l’esercito israeliano ha avviato una vasta operazione militare dopo l’attacco a un checkpoint costato la vita a due soldati.
La risposta di Tel Aviv è stata durissima: chiusura di Hebron e della vicina Halhul, blocco dell’intera Cisgiordania, perquisizioni, arresti e demolizioni nei quartieri da cui provenivano gli attentatori. L’esercito sostiene di voler smantellare infrastrutture terroristiche e individuare armi e militanti, ma le autorità palestinesi denunciano una punizione collettiva contro la popolazione civile. La nuova offensiva si inserisce in un contesto già segnato dall’espansione degli insediamenti israeliani e dall’aumento delle aggressioni dei coloni contro i palestinesi, in particolare durante la raccolta delle olive.
A rendere ancora più incerto il voto israeliano è il quadro emerso dagli ultimi sondaggi, raccolti anche dal tracker elettorale di Haaretz.
Le rilevazioni confermano una competizione aperta, con Yashar in vantaggio sul Likud e nessuno dei due schieramenti in grado, da solo, di raggiungere la soglia dei 61 seggi necessaria per governare. Nell’ultimo sondaggio Maariv, realizzato da Lazar Research, il blocco del premier si ferma a 48 seggi, contro i 54 delle opposizioni e i 14 attribuiti ai partiti arabi. Yashar è accreditato di 21 deputati, contro i 19 del Likud, mentre la formazione dell’ex premier Naftali Bennett raggiunge quota 15.
The main obstacle for Eisenkot remains building an alternative majority, partly due to the reluctance of a section of the opposition to govern with the support of Arab groups. Netanyahu, instead, is focusing on national security and the ability to present himself as a guarantor of Israel's protection. The prime minister has promised an unprecedented response to the attack on Israeli troops, while National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir has reiterated his call for full control of the West Bank and the dismantling of the Palestinian National Authority (PNA).
Technically, the vote cast is for a party. The leader of the party that receives the most votes is most likely to become prime minister, provided they manage to form a government. But this doesn't happen immediately. The official election results merely initiate the process of forming a government and appointing the prime minister. Approximately 7.331.981 Israelis are eligible to vote, equivalent to 71,15% of the total population of 10.305.000. In the last elections in 2022, 6.788.804 people were eligible to vote, or 70,31% of the population of 9.656.000. Electoral turnout in Israel is generally high, and in 2022, 70,63% of eligible voters, or 4.794.593 people, cast their ballots.
There is a threshold for entry into the Knesset, and a party needs 3,25% of the vote to be represented in Parliament. This figure equates to four seats. According to several recent polls, out of 37 registered parties, only 10 are expected to reach this threshold. The leader of the party that manages to gain enough allies to form a coalition becomes prime minister.
This coalition usually holds a majority of seats, 61 out of 120, but this is not a prerequisite. The minority governments led by Yitzhak Rabin and Shimon Peres between 1993 and 1996, for example, lacked an absolute majority and managed to govern with the support of parties outside the coalition. Parties choose potential MPs before the elections, through primaries or unilateral decisions by the party leader. The higher the percentage of votes obtained, the greater the number of representatives that party can send to Parliament.
Within seven days of the official election results being released, President Isaac Herzog will decide who will have the best chance of forming a government, based on the Knesset party leader he deems best able to gather enough alliances to form a coalition. The candidate must be a Knesset member, but his or her party does not necessarily have to have received the most votes. Herzog will decide after a round of consultations with all party leaders. The candidate selected by Herzog has 28 days to form a governing coalition, with the possibility of a 14-day extension. The coalition must then be approved by a majority of Knesset members present at the vote. During these 28 days and beyond, the prime ministerial candidate attempts to convince parties to join his or her coalition, often by promising ministerial positions.
If the prime ministerial candidate fails to form a coalition, the president has three days to choose another. The only requirement is that the candidate be a member of the Knesset. The same 28-day deadline applies, but with no possibility of extension. Herzog could also decide not to nominate anyone and inform the Knesset that no candidate is capable of forming a government, a position he is required to take in any case if the second candidate for prime minister also fails to form a government.
There is a 21-day period during which 61 MKs can petition the president to grant a candidate, who must be a member of the Knesset, the power to form a government. The president has two days to grant the request and grant the candidate 14 days to form a government. This government must then obtain the approval of the Knesset. If no petitions are received or the nominated candidate fails to form a government, the Knesset dissolves and a new 90-day election cycle begins.
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