Susanna Riva The news of Iran's willingness to reopen the Strait of Hormuz triggered a rapid reassessment of energy prices and an immediate reaction from European financial markets. European stock markets showed modest but distinct movements as traders assessed the impact on energy supplies and geopolitical prospects. US futures also moved against this backdrop, initially showing positive signs ahead of the main economic indicators.
The announcement was made by Tehran's Foreign Minister, Esmail Baghaei , who stressed that " The possibility of implementing this plan in two days is a further sign of Iran's good faith " and that " If Tehran's demands are met, it will be possible to restore security in the Strait of Hormuz and relaunch the negotiation process in a very short time ."
These sentences represented the interpretative fulcrum of the session, orienting investors' expectations towards a reduction in the risk premium on maritime supplies.
Movement of the main European stock markets
European stock markets responded differently to the news. Madrid closed up 0,4% , while Milan rose 0,2%.
Paris remained virtually flat, rising 0,06% . Conversely, two major stock markets swung into negative territory: Frankfurt fell 0,1% and London 0,2% . These shifts highlight how sentiment remains divided: some operators are valuing the prospect of stability in energy routes, while others remain cautious due to potential conditions to be negotiated between the parties involved.
Factors that influenced the day
The movement of individual indices was influenced primarily by energy price expectations and, secondarily, by signals from the US markets. In particular, Wall Street futures showed positive trends at the opening, a factor that mitigated the pessimism in some European markets ahead of US macroeconomic data on PMIs and the ISM manufacturing index.
Energy prices: oil and gas falling
Energy prices were at the center of the market's reaction. WTI crude oil fell 4,49% to $ 99,44 a barrel, a significant decline reflecting the prospect of reduced tensions in shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, the fuel and gas sector felt downward pressure: natural gas fell 5,04% , contributing to lower expected prices for the trading period.
The decline in energy prices has impacted oil sector stocks: companies such as BP, TotalEnergies, Eni, and Shell have reported negative performances of approximately 1-1,6%, reflecting the direct correlation between commodity prices and the short-term results of integrated companies. The fluctuations in stock prices highlight how operators are now pricing in scenarios in which reduced geopolitical tensions reduce the supply risk premium.
Short-term implications
From a practical standpoint, a rapid reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could alleviate the threat of disruptions to oil and gas routes, favoring a normalization of spot and futures contracts. However, the mechanism remains contingent on the counterparties and the demands formulated by Tehran, which Baghaei defined as an integral part of the ongoing negotiations. The situation requires careful reading of official communications, as any step toward de-escalation could result in sudden price adjustments.
The combination of a formal diplomatic statement and the market reaction triggered visible movements on both European stock markets and energy prices. Esmail Baghaei 's words fueled expectations that, if confirmed by future communications between the parties, could restore greater stability along the Gulf routes and in the global energy basket.