Susanna Riva The legislative elections held on October 27 in Israel produced an unexpected result: none of the competing coalitions surpassed the 61-seat threshold needed to control the Knesset . Outgoing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu maintained leadership of his bloc, but the popular vote marked a fragmented political landscape, paving the way for weeks of intense negotiations.
President Isaac Herzog is tasked with initiating consultations with party leaders, setting a tight deadline for the formation of a new government. Meanwhile, Netanyahu remains at the helm as interim prime minister, ensuring administrative continuity while the process of building a majority remains uncertain.
Distribution of seats and composition of blocs
The final result gives the pro-Netanyahu bloc 53 seats out of 120. The leading Likud party has 27 seats, supported by United Torah Judaism (7), Otzma Yehudit (7), Shas (6) and Religious Zionism (6). In contrast, the opposition bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot has totaled 48 seats, distributed between Yashar (21), B'Yachad (12), The Democrats (8) and Yisrael Beytenu (7).
The pro-Netanyahu bloc
With 53 votes, Netanyahu's group lacks an absolute majority, but it holds the top spot overall. His traditional strategy involves maintaining the support of far-right and ultra-Orthodox groups, which formed the backbone of his previous government. However, sacrificing these allies would be necessary to move closer to a broader majority, a prospect that currently appears unlikely.
The opposition bloc led by Eisenkot
Eisenkot's Alternative, despite being the largest of the opposition parties, is 13 seats shy of a majority. The Yashar Party is the main driver of change, but its platform has ruled out cooperation with Arab parties from the outset, generating internal tension over the possibility of broadening the alliance.
The Arab lists
The Arab formations won a total of 19 seats, divided between the Joint List (11) and Ra'am (8). Although traditionally excluded from government coalitions, these groups have declared their willingness to support an executive that respects their criteria, opening a potential avenue for external support for a governing minority.
Appointment procedure and government scenarios
The final results must be certified and delivered to President Herzog by November 4th, who will be responsible for appointing a candidate to form a government . The first candidate is expected to be chosen by November 11th, with a 28-day mandate, extendable by 14 days. If the appointee fails, the president can nominate a second candidate for another 28 days, followed, if necessary, by a third with 14 days.
Possible national unity agreements
One theoretically viable option is the formation of a unity government that combines the forces of Netanyahu, Eisenkot, and other central parties. Such a government would yield a total of 66 seats, but would require Netanyahu to lose some right-wing supporters, a compromise considered difficult to achieve given the prime minister's anti-Arab rhetoric.
Minority supported by Arab parties
If Eisenkot were to be appointed, he could seek a 67-seat majority by counting on the external support of the Arab parties (48 + 19). This configuration would defy his previous promise to exclude Arabs from the government, but it could resonate with the statements of Yousef Jabareen and Mansour Abbas, who have expressed their willingness to work towards "change through a Jewish-Arab partnership."
Consequences of a new vote
If none of the above solutions materialize within the established timeframe, the Knesset will be dissolved and new elections will have to be held within 90 days. A second round of voting could prolong political uncertainty and impact security dynamics, especially in light of tensions with Iran and the situation in Hebron.