Susanna Riva Every night, the skies over Kiev are bombarded by a hail of Russian drones and missiles , a tactic aimed at confusing and draining the civilian population's will. On a single Friday in late September, the capital recorded ten air raid warnings, lasting nearly nine hours and resulting in seven deaths. The following day alone, the warnings lasted more than eighteen hours, resulting in three additional deaths.
These now recurring data show how the war of attrition has become the norm.
Russian military stagnation and the goal of political victory
IRIS Director Nico Lange emphasizes that despite the intensity of the air strikes, Moscow's armed forces are not gaining ground on the battlefield.
The lack of concrete progress has pushed the Kremlin to focus on a political victory, hoping that the growing hesitation of Western partners will allow Vladimir Putin to declare some sort of diplomatic “triumph.”
The role of fear of escalation in Germany
Fear of a wider escalation has led Germany to behave cautiously, withholding supplies of some crucial weapons systems and maintaining a relatively passive position towards the so-called “shadow” of the Russian fleet in the Baltic Sea.
This hesitation, according to Lange, represents a “glimmer of opportunity” for Moscow, which hopes to weaken the transatlantic alliance without having to face a direct confrontation.
Russian propaganda and the fracture of German public opinion
A survey conducted by ARD-DeutschlandTrend reveals that 42% of German residents oppose arms supplies to Ukraine, a percentage that rises to 54% in eastern Germany, the highest level ever recorded. This decline in support is fueled by a disinformation campaign orchestrated by Moscow, which uses local media and political figures to sow doubt.
Parties like the AfD have amplified false reports, such as claims that CDU leader Friedrich Merz intends to send young Germans to the Ukrainian front. Similar propaganda appeared in BSW election posters in Saxony-Anhalt, where Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is portrayed as a "predator" and Western aid is described as a "racket." These messages, although not directly emanating from Moscow, serve its purpose of sowing division.
Financing: the key to the conflict
According to military expert Gustav Gressel, the key to understanding the outcome of the war lies in financial flows. Russia supports its fighters with substantial bonuses, but this same strategy generates heavy debt "under the table." Ukrainian counteroffensives against Russian oil refineries and infrastructure strike at the very backbone of Russian financing.
At the same time, Ukraine remains heavily dependent on Western monetary and military support. Any reduction in this aid would jeopardize the country's resilience, potentially forcing millions of civilians to seek refuge in Europe. The situation,