Susanna Riva With the vote on Sunday, October 25, just around the corner, attention is focused on the second round of the Brazilian presidency. The confrontation between Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva , a left-wing representative of the Workers' Party (PT), and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro , the candidate of the Liberal Party (PL), was the focus of the latest study conducted by Datafolha.
The results, published shortly before the vote, reveal an extremely balanced electoral situation, with differences of just a few percentage points.
The Datafolha survey of October 20-22: key data
The survey, conducted on a sample of 2.520 voters between October 20 and 22, has a margin of error of ±2 percentage points . When all voters are considered, including blank, invalid, and undecided ballots, Flávio Bolsonaro obtains 47% of voting intentions, while Lula registers 46%.
5 % of those interviewed said they would vote for a blank or invalid ballot, and 2% remained undecided about their candidate.
Distribution of blank and undecided ballots
The data regarding blank ballots is significant because it indicates a significant level of disaffection toward both contenders. The 5% percentage of blank ballots is slightly higher than the average for previous Brazilian electoral surveys, suggesting a possible widespread frustration within the political landscape.
At the same time, the 2% of undecided voters represent a segment of the electorate still open to potential persuasion campaigns in the final hours before the vote.
Comparison with last week's poll
A survey by the same institute released the previous week indicated a 51% lead for Flávio Bolsonaro , compared to 49% for Lula. In the first count of the second-round campaign, the senator had clearly outperformed the president, with a 52%-48% result . The new data, therefore, highlights a narrowing of the gap, which has fallen within the survey's margin of error, but at the same time marks a slight reversal of the trend in favor of the former president.
Disapproval and rejection: the faces of mistrust
The poll also provides indicators of rejection for the two candidates. Forty-six percent of respondents said they would no longer vote for Flávio Bolsonaro , up two points from the previous figure (44%). Conversely, Lula 's disapproval rating dropped from 46% to 45% . These changes, though limited, signal a slight momentum in favor of the outgoing president, who appears to have regained some of the trust lost in the first phase of the campaign.
Impacts on the Brazilian political landscape
The near-equal vote between the two candidates makes the outcome of the final vote uncertain. Political analysts point out that, in a context where the margin of error is 2 points , even small movements among undecided voters or those who have expressed their intention to vote white can make a difference. Furthermore, the presence of a fifth white vote, higher than usual, could translate into a narrower outcome for the winning candidate, impacting the legitimacy of the future president.
The picture provided by Datafolha paints an electoral contest shrouded in uncertainty, with a race that appears destined to define Brazil's political future in an extremely narrow way. The final hours before the runoff will remain crucial for persuasion strategies, mobilization campaigns, and, above all, for each candidate's ability to convert undecided voters into concrete votes.