Chiara Nava The weather pattern in Italy is changing: after a period characterized by the presence of an anticyclone, an Atlantic disturbance is poised to bring widespread rain , with the first events expected primarily in the northwestern regions. From Sunday, October 18, the worsening conditions will progressively affect new areas of the country, with accumulations that could reach 40-50 millimeters in 24 hours in Liguria, Tuscany, and Piedmont.
The unstable phase is expected to continue into the new week, accompanied by a drop in temperatures and locally persistent precipitation at least until Friday, October 23.
According to Lorenzo Tedici, meteorologist and media manager at iLMeteo.it, the change will be linked to the arrival of a disturbed structure from Northern Europe and the subsequent opening of a corridor of moist air from the Atlantic towards Italy.
Heavy rains expected on Sunday, October 18, in Liguria, Tuscany, and Piedmont.
Over the next few hours, cloud cover will gradually increase in the northwest , while more stable conditions will prevail in the rest of the north. Clouds and clearings will alternate in the center, while light showers are possible in the south and on the islands, especially between lower Calabria and Ionian Sicily.
The situation is expected to worsen from Saturday evening, when an unstable core from the North Sea will reach France, favoring an increase in instability also in the western sectors of Italy.
Sunday, October 18, will see the first widespread rainfall. Liguria, Tuscany, and Piedmont will be among the most exposed regions, with rainfall expected to reach 40-50 millimeters in 24 hours. Rain will also reach Lombardy, part of Emilia, and the coasts of Lazio. In the south, rainfall is expected on the Ionian coast of Calabria , as well as in Sicily and southern Sardinia . The rest of the country will be drier, particularly in the northeastern regions.
Another unstable week: rain until Friday and falling temperatures
The worsening weather will continue from Monday, October 19 , with scattered precipitation in the North and widespread showers along the Tyrrhenian slopes of Central Italy. In the South, instability will mainly affect the major islands and the areas bordering the Ionian Sea.
From Tuesday, rain will tend to spread across much of the country. According to forecasters, the rains could continue, with varying intensity, at least until Friday, October 23rd.
The weakening of high pressure will facilitate this change, allowing Atlantic disturbances to reach Italy more easily. The forecast atmospheric configuration also includes the initial westward shift of an unstable core, followed by a subsequent eastward evolution, opening a humid corridor toward the peninsula.
Along with precipitation, temperatures are expected to drop , returning to values closer to seasonal averages, generally between 18 and 21 degrees Celsius across much of the country. The rains could also help reduce the water deficit, especially in the Piedmont basins, where moderate drought has been reported for several months.