Edward Marchesi US President Donald Trump said that Russia will begin supplying diesel to the American and global markets "immediately." The announcement, made in the first week of October, comes as fuel prices in the US have reached $6.179 per gallon, marking a nearly 70% increase compared to the same period last year.
The proposal calls for 300.000 tonnes of diesel now, a further 500.000 tonnes in November, and then one million tonnes per month.
Details of the deal and the price hike in the United States
The context is characterized by a severe global diesel shortage: world exports in the first nine months of 2026 fell to 172,2 million tonnes, a 10% decrease compared to the previous year.
This decline is due to the reduction in production at many refineries, partly as a result of the war in Iran, which began in late February. The pressure on the markets is reflected in voter perception: a Silver Bulletin poll found that 73% of respondents criticized Trump's handling of the cost of living just weeks before the midterm elections.
The Role of the Global Market in American Prices
Although the U.S. produces about 25% more diesel than it consumes domestically, the domestic price is closely tied to international cycles . When other countries are willing to pay more for the fuel, global demand pushes up domestic prices as well.
Russian capacity and “grey” diesel exports
Russia remains a net exporter of diesel, with production far exceeding domestic needs. Despite Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries, diesel production has remained two times higher than domestic consumption, while the difference for gasoline is around 15-20 % . Reuters data shows that September shipments amounted to approximately 427.000 tonnes, significantly lower than the 3 million tonnes recorded monthly before the escalation of hostilities. According to the Kpler company, September exports totaled 584.000 tonnes, while analyst Sergei Vakulenko, formerly of Gazprom Neft, estimated at least 1,6 million tonnes transported by sea between July and September, despite the export ban imposed by the Russian government in July.
September shipments: conflicting data
The divergent figures reflect the presence of "gray" exports to Central Asia and Mongolia , countries exempt from the ban. Vakulenko argues that Moscow tolerated these operations because it lacked the storage space needed to hold the surplus. Following the agreement with Trump, Russia partially lifted the ban on October 10, allowing exports already underway to be legalized. Analyst Tatiana Mitrova noted that the volumes requested by Trump would have ended up on the global market anyway without additional effort.
Expert analysis: the agreement's concrete limitations
The quantities announced by Trump, while concrete, represent a small fraction of global consumption. 500.000 tons correspond to approximately 4% of monthly US consumption and 0,4% of global consumption, covering only 13% of the estimated global deficit of 4 million tons . Vakulenko warns that "the volumes under discussion are too small to significantly influence global prices, especially before the midterm elections." Furthermore, logistics via the Baltic and Black Sea remain vulnerable to Ukrainian drone attacks, further limiting Moscow's ability to expand exports.
Moscow-based analyst Kirill Rodionov adds that Russian energy companies will benefit the most, as they will be able to officially export more diesel at higher prices. This trend won't translate into a significant drop in American prices, but it will provide the Trump administration with a "diplomatic victory" narrative ahead of the election.
The real effectiveness will depend on Moscow's ability to overcome logistical constraints and on the developments of the conflict in Ukraine.