Edward Marchesi The first round of the Brazilian presidential election is underway, and preliminary data already indicates a clear preference for Flavio Bolsonaro , son of the former president, with 50,4% of the votes counted. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva , the current left-wing president, has 41,4% . The result was calculated based on approximately 40% of polling stations counted, but analysts warn that the margin could be eroded in the later stages of the count.
The panorama at 40% of the votes
The initial counting phase traditionally favors the sovereigntist candidate because the first seats counted come from the richer southern states, territories historically close to Bolsonaro. At 10% of the vote, the senator boasted a ten-point lead, and at 40% , the gap narrowed to nine points.
This trend suggests a tendency towards rapprochement between the two contenders, with the possibility that Lula's northeastern stronghold , still unaccounted for, could close the gap.
The weight of the excluded candidates
The candidates who did not advance to the runoff represent about 10% of the total vote. Since they are all center-right, their voter base should translate into an advantage for Bolsonaro, unless a significant segment decides to shift their support to Lula.
To ensure re-election, analysts believe Lula must create a safety margin of at least 5-7 percentage points over his opposing candidate, otherwise the final outcome will remain uncertain.
Regional dynamics and prospects for the runoff election
In the state of Mato Grosso do Sul, the Superior Electoral Court confirmed the re-election of Governor Eduardo Riedel with 67,32% of the vote, against Fabio Trad's 23,12%. In the same region, the presidential vote showed 59,52% for Bolsonaro against 33,50% for Lula, figures reflecting regional polarization. Furthermore, the two Liberal Party candidates, Reinaldo Azambuja and Capitán Contar, were elected to the Senate, consolidating the center-right party's presence in federal institutions.
International influences
The international context adds further complexity: a Bolsonaro victory would be seen as a continuation of the wave of successes of conservative leaders in Latin America, linked to US President Donald Trump . Conversely, a second Lula return to power could create tensions with Washington, which has expressed differences on trade and security issues. Lula warned, after voting in São Bernardo do Campo (São Paulo State), that " What is at stake is the future of Brazil ," drawing attention to the potential repercussions of any foreign interference.
The remainder of the campaign was marred by corruption scandals, concerns about the sustainability of public finances, and a virtually nonexistent televised debate, as the two leading candidates avoided major confrontations. With the runoff election scheduled for October 25, the coming weeks will be crucial to determining whether Lula will be able to bridge the remaining gap and secure his return to power, or whether Bolsonaro will consolidate his position as leader of a right-wing coalition.