Adnkronos (Adnkronos) – Local elections are taking place today, Thursday, May 7, in the United Kingdom. With over 5.000 seats up for grabs in 136 English local authorities—including all 32 London boroughs—they are shaping up to be the most significant political test since the 2024 general election. More than 20 million voters are called to the polls in a round that, despite being administrative, has clear national significance, especially for Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who enters the election in a very difficult position, amidst negative polls, internal tensions within the Labour Party, and widespread discontent over the cost of living and his leadership, which has been severely shaken by the handling of the Epstein case and the appointment of Ambassador Peter Mandelson.
Forecasts suggest a possible historic collapse for Labour, which could lose between 50% and 74% of the 2.557 seats it is defending.
Some estimates suggest up to 1.900 fewer councilors, one of the worst results in the party's history, following the already heavy defeat a year ago. The prime minister's approval rating remains very low, weighed down by both the economic crisis and internal tensions. A negative outcome risks reopening the internal conflict, fueling pressure for a change in leadership.
The British media have portrayed today's vote as a referendum on the traditional parties.
According to what Tony Travers of the London School of Economics and Political Science explained to Adnkronos, voters are using this election as an opportunity to express their frustration with both the Labour government and Kemi Badenoch's Conservatives, with the latter, according to Independent projections, risking winning just 455 of the current 1.362 seats.
In this context, the alternatives represented by Reform and the Greens emerge forcefully, ready to take advantage of the fragilities of traditional forces.
The party led by Nigel Farage is expected to make strong gains, with over 1.300 additional seats and the possibility of winning several local councils, including Sunderland, Thurrock, Wakefield, and Barnsley, as well as taking Conservative territory in counties such as Essex, Norfolk, and Suffolk. The Greens, led by Zack Polanski, are also expected to make significant gains, with around 500 additional seats and significant ambitions, especially in urban areas, particularly London.
London itself represents the true heart of the challenge. Voting for all seats in the 32 boroughs is conducted here using a multi-member first-past-the-post system, allowing voters to cast multiple votes. In an increasingly fragmented environment, even small shifts in voting can have significant effects. The capital appears deeply divided: the Greens are threatening Labour strongholds in Inner London like Hackney, Islington, Lambeth, and Lewisham, while Reform is gaining ground in peripheral areas like Barking and Dagenham, Havering, and Bexley. The split in the Progressive vote could even favor a Conservative comeback in iconic boroughs like Westminster and Wandsworth.
For Starmer, the London result will be decisive. If Labour were to lose more than five or six boroughs, his leadership would be immediately called into question. The prime minister is banking on several factors to limit the damage: the potential "useful vote" against the Conservatives, the mobilization of undecided voters (estimated at around 20%), and holding on to at least 15 to 18 boroughs. Otherwise, a defeat even in symbolic strongholds like Hackney or Newham could deal a severe blow to his authority, ushering in a period of severe political instability in the country.
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international/foreign
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