Adnkronos (Adnkronos) –
Vladimir Putin's red light in Donbass. Ukraine has broken Russia's grip on Donetsk and, in effect, thwarted the Kremlin's plan: conquering the region is not a goal Russia can achieve in the short term. This is the picture painted by the Institute for the Study of War, the American think tank that monitors the war that began in February 2022 on a daily basis.
“Ukrainian forces have defeated Russia’s 2026 campaign to seize Donetsk Oblast,” is the ISW special report that takes stock of the situation.
“Russian forces intended to conduct a deep encirclement of the entire 'belt of fortresses',” the Ukrainian defensive system based around the cities of Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka and Kostiantynivka.
Moscow's offensive developed "from the Lyman direction to the north and the Dobropillya direction to the southwest, connecting near Barvinkove in Kharkiv Oblast. This broad encirclement would largely complete the occupation of unoccupied Donetsk Oblast," the think tank explains, describing Moscow's plan.
“The Ukrainian offensive known as Operation Vivaldi in the Lyman direction,” which has been underway for months now, “has completely upset this Russian plan by inflicting an operational defeat on the Russian pincer movement in the north.”
In essence, Kiev's operations have broken the siege, decisively and with medium- to long-term effects, according to the ISW. "This Ukrainian success will force the Russian military to reorganize and likely fundamentally rethink its approach to achieving its objectives in this area," is the scenario outlined by analysts. It's possible to call this a turning point, based on the content of the special report: "There is no basis for assessing that Russian forces will be able to take the remainder of Donetsk Oblast in a short period of time, as Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to claim." Nor is it realistic "to predict that Russian forces will ever be able to complete their occupation of this region by force."
On the ground, the outlook is essentially a prolonged stalemate. In this context, Russia's missile and drone strikes against Ukrainian cities are becoming increasingly frequent—practically daily. The latest attack hit the city of Kramatorsk, causing at least 33 deaths on a road carrying two civilian buses. Images released by the local prosecutor's office show the burning metal carcass of a bus, along with debris and several victims on the road.
"Doctors are fighting to save the lives of those injured in the Russian attack on Kramatorsk," said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, emphasizing that "this attack will not go unanswered. Russia is trying to destroy all life in Donbass, and a response from the world is imperative. A forceful response, exactly as the Russians deserve for all the deaths they have caused. May all the fallen rest in peace," he added.
The risk of further escalation is real. Russia and Ukraine are in a stalemate that "could quickly transform what is now a war between two countries into a much broader regional conflict," warns US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, calling the situation "very dangerous." A negotiated solution seems far away, but something is moving. A Ukrainian delegation will be in the United States today and Saturday for further talks with Donald Trump's emissaries: "The Ukrainian delegation will meet Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff in the United States tomorrow. The meeting is expected to last two days," says Zelensky, explaining that he can "also count on the participation of a European team." Washington's goal is to initiate trilateral meetings, at least at the technical level, by October.
For the talks scheduled for the next few hours in Miami, the United States has invited the national security advisers of France, Germany, and the United Kingdom, as well as representatives of the European Union and NATO. The negotiations will focus on "new ideas" for ending the conflict with Russia, particularly "proposals for security guarantees for Ukraine" and "a postwar prosperity plan," American sources told the AP.
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