Susanna Riva In recent weeks, the electoral reform has been moving through the halls of Palazzo Madama and Montecitorio , becoming the subject of intense negotiations between the majority groups. The bill was presented to the Senate on September 9th and, if amended by senators, will be reconsidered for a third reading by the Chamber of Deputies starting September 28th.
At the heart of the debate remain technical but politically decisive elements such as the threshold that activates the majority bonus , the so-called "anti-bush" rule and some rules on voting and candidacies.
The parliamentary framework involves several actors: on one side the Brothers of Italy (FdI) group, the Lega Noi Moderati and other components; on the other Forza Italia and groups with different sensitivities.
The debate was marked by clear statements and formal interventions: Avs group leader Peppe De Cristofaro described the situation with the phrase " It's truly embarrassing ", highlighting the tension in the parliamentary debate.
The double round discarded and the match on the threshold of the prize
One of the most discussed hypotheses, the runoff mechanism , was progressively set aside during internal consultations.
In the Senate chamber at Palazzo Madama, a version was considered that would award the prize to the coalition that surpassed 48% in the first round and, if that threshold was not met, a second round between the two lists above 38% . However, due to internal resistance within the coalition and strategic considerations, the two-round system has lost support and is no longer a viable option given the current stalemate.
The political relevance of the percentage point
With the runoff election out of the question, the discussion focused on the minimum percentage needed to activate the majority bonus. The version emerging from Montecitorio set the threshold at 42% , but negotiations opened up the possibility of lowering it to 41% . That single percentage point carries real weight: it could mean the difference between awarding the bonus of 70 seats in the Chamber of Deputies and 35 in the Senate , or moving toward a more proportional system.
The “anti-bush” rule and the weights of minor allies
Another technical issue with strong political implications is the rule commonly referred to as the "anti-bush" rule . In the wording approved by the Chamber, the results of coalition lists that remain below 3 percent and are not re-elected are not counted towards reaching the bonus threshold. To protect smaller allies, a joint amendment by FdI Lega and Noi Moderati has been presented , proposing to lower the cap to 1 percent, thus restoring weight to smaller groupings.
Forza Italia 's disagreement on this point is holding up the process, and doubts about its constitutional legitimacy remain, further complicating the negotiations. The dispute isn't just a mathematical one; it also touches on the structure of the coalition agreements, with direct implications for the representation of smaller parties.
Other issues: amendments, preferences and parliamentary calendar
Other pending issues include individual proposals and measures regarding the internal mechanisms of the lists. An amendment tabled by Senator Paola Ambrogio of the Italian Left (FdI) has reopened discussions on the threshold, while an individual motion by Senator Marcello Pera had put forward the two-round solution, now likely destined for withdrawal or shelving. On the preference front, the center-right has reintroduced a formulation that keeps the top candidates blocked, with the vote in Palazzo Madama being open to avoid the secret ballot problems encountered at other stages.
If the majority Sherpas' line holds, the final vote in the Senate is expected on September 15th . Subsequently, the text, if amended, will return to Montecitorio for a third reading, scheduled to begin on September 28th, with the aim of concluding negotiations between the end of this month and early October . These deadlines mark the operational timetable for the legislative process and the timeframe by which political actors intend to conclude the matter.
Every percentage point and every procedural change can change the final balance of the electoral system ahead of the next round of votes.