Adnkronos (Adnkronos) – A deal potentially destined to reshape the global tech industry. The potential merger between Tesla and SpaceX, two of the most ambitious ventures in Elon Musk's entrepreneurial universe, aims to integrate electric mobility, artificial intelligence, robotics, energy, and space infrastructure into a single industrial and financial ecosystem. On the table are overall valuations in the range of $3.500-$4.000 trillion, potentially enormous synergies, and investments that could change the scale of global competition.
But also regulatory risks, governance concerns, potential conflicts of interest, and the difficulty of turning an ambitious vision into concrete results. To understand the opportunities and challenges of the operation, Stefano Aversa, global vice president of AlixPartners, an international firm specializing in industrial transformations, turnarounds, and extraordinary transactions with 30 offices worldwide, spoke with Adnkronos.
Could the potential merger between Tesla and SpaceX create real synergies between electric mobility, artificial intelligence, and space, or is it primarily a gamble on Elon Musk's vision?
“It would be the largest merger in history, with total valuations in the order of $3.500-4.000 trillion.
SpaceX would likely account for about two-thirds of the value, and Tesla for one-third. We're therefore talking about a transaction of extraordinary scale, with both industrial and financial implications. The primary motivations are industrial, but the transaction could also bring financial benefits to current and future shareholders.
What concrete synergies could justify the integration of electric cars, robotics, satellites, and artificial intelligence?
“The two companies develop technologies that are partly convergent and synergistic.
Tesla is working in autonomous driving, robotaxis, and, increasingly, humanoid robots. SpaceX is active in launch vehicles, rockets, satellites, and artificial intelligence infrastructure. A first area of synergy concerns data centers and energy storage systems: Tesla has Megapack, its batteries also intended for energy infrastructure. Another significant project is TeraFab, the semiconductor production initiative, which could become one of the largest chip factories in the world and serve both companies. More generally, space infrastructure will require significant investments and technologies that could be shared.
What are the main obstacles to an operation of this scale? And what role could China play?
There are several issues. First, there's the regulatory issue, common to large mergers but destined to take on particular significance in a transaction of this scale. I expect significant attention from China as well, regarding US operations. Then there's the issue of governance. Elon Musk holds approximately 15% of Tesla and a much larger stake in SpaceX. Therefore, determining the share exchange ratio will be particularly delicate, as it must protect Tesla's other shareholders and prevent them from being penalized by the transaction. Finally, as with all mergers, there's the risk of distracting attention from the business. A transaction of this type involves additional activities that can take time and resources away from day-to-day management, increasing execution risks.
Could the merger create value for investors or does it risk transferring it from one company to the other, also in light of Elon Musk's interests?
It's impossible to determine a priori whether the merger would create value for all shareholders. However, it seems clear to me that the pie could become greater than the sum of its parts, thanks to the synergies we've just described. However, critical issues remain regarding the exchange values, which are complex and delicate. We're talking about differences amounting to hundreds of billions of dollars, figures comparable to the budgets of some states. The terms of the transaction and, above all, the exchange ratio established for the various shareholder categories will therefore be crucial. On the other hand, the integration could guarantee much broader access to the capital markets. Enormous resources will be needed to finance projects related to data centers and space infrastructure, in particular. This will require attracting investors with very high financial capabilities, such as sovereign wealth funds and global funds specializing in infrastructure.
Is a total valuation above $3.500 trillion justified by economic fundamentals or does it embody very ambitious expectations for the growth of artificial intelligence?
"If we look at the current valuations, we're talking about around $2.100 trillion for SpaceX and $1.600 trillion for Tesla. These valuations are strongly tied to growth expectations, especially in the case of SpaceX. We're at the technological frontier, with very high growth prospects in the fields of humanoid robots, artificial intelligence, and satellites. This is similar to what happened to Tesla in the early stages of its growth: SpaceX also has very ambitious prospects, despite being at a different stage of development. The value of the two companies, and especially that of SpaceX, therefore depends very significantly on future growth expectations, rather than current economic fundamentals."
What is the risk that markets might underestimate: excessive valuation, difficulty realizing synergies, or the concentration of different activities in a single group?
All three risks are significant and must be considered. However, I would tend to prioritize operational risk.
The size of the transaction alters the risk profile, both due to the scale of the group and the complexity of the technologies involved, which are evolving very rapidly. The technological, execution, and financial risks are all significant. At the same time, the potential value generated is also very high: this explains the strong interest in the transaction.
What is the determining condition for the success of the operation?
"In my opinion, speed. I've already mentioned executive risk: it increases significantly if companies remain in a decision-making stalemate. It's clear that Elon Musk would have a personal interest in strengthening control and unifying the governance of the two companies. There are also potential synergies arising from the consolidation of corporate structures and the reduction of some duplication. In these sectors, speed is an absolutely essential competitive factor."
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