Adnkronos (Adnkronos) –
Ukraine has a chance to turn the tide in the war against Russia. Now more than ever, Kiev needs the support of Europe and the United States, which risk squandering a colossal opportunity. This is the analysis of the Institute for the Study of War, the Washington think tank that monitors the conflict daily.
Ukraine has regained the initiative on the ground along most of the front's key lines. In 2026, Kiev's forces erased the territorial gains Russia had made during the year. In essence, according to the ISW, Moscow has only gained about 100 square kilometers since January, compared to Ukrainian counteroffensives that have liberated at least 1.046 square kilometers.
In 2026, Vladimir Putin's army is advancing at a rate of less than one square kilometer per day. Ukraine's achievements on the ground "are neither transitory nor accidental: they are the fruit of the country's growing warfighting capacity and the military transformation that took place during 2025 and 2026," the ISW notes. Kiev "is also developing a ballistic missile program that, if successful, would expose Russia's strategically important military infrastructure and defense industry to even greater risks."
The balance on the ground can change.
And, according to the think tank's analysis, the situation is clearer to Moscow than to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's partners. "Unlike the United States and Ukraine's other partners, the Kremlin is aware of Russia's critical vulnerability to the initiative, operational momentum, and sustained pressure" exerted by Kiev's forces. Russia's campaign, based on ballistic missiles and drones, "aims to force Ukraine and its allies to adopt a reactive posture, distracting them from exploiting a hard-won opportunity to maintain the strategic initiative against Russia." The contribution of the US and Europe is crucial at this time. "In the immediate future, Ukraine's partners must help accelerate the deployment of countermeasures against Russian jet-powered drones and proactively sustain Ukraine's momentum on the battlefield: resources and planning are needed," the ISW summary states.
This isn't what's happening, judging by one of Zelensky's last posts published on the evening of October 13th after yet another ballistic missile attack on Kyiv. "Once again, no warning from our partners. The main target was the energy infrastructure, specifically the CHPP-4 power plant. Unfortunately, it was hit. A residential building was also damaged, and rescuers are currently extinguishing a fire there. Our systems detected these missiles only when they were already practically approaching Kyiv. The CHPP-4 power plant is one of Kyiv's key energy facilities. According to our intelligence services, the Russians are preparing further ballistic missile launches. The facts show that the Russians do not consider themselves bound by what the US President has said. Ukraine supported an energy ceasefire. Russia is targeting another power plant and the lives of our people," the Ukrainian president states, pointing the finger—not too subtly—at the lack of US intelligence cooperation. Donald Trump denies all charges: "We have not stopped sharing information," says the American president.
The agreement Putin and Trump reached for the supply of Russian diesel also fits into this framework. "Russia isn't supplying us with diesel, it's supplying it to the entire world. It's not a deal for us; the diesel will be released onto the world market. It's not a deal for me, it's for the world: and it has driven down prices," Trump said. For the ISW, the picture is starkly different. "The Kremlin's offer to supply diesel to global markets represents a cognitive warfare initiative aimed at undermining the momentum of the effective pressure campaign against the Russian energy sector. The Kremlin is carefully monitoring Ukraine and its partners to ensure they don't retain the initiative. The United States and Europe can choose to undermine the Kremlin's strategy or risk a broader conflict, characterized by greater risks of escalation," the analysis reads.
European funding must support the Ukrainian military leadership's ability to plan simultaneous and consecutive operations well beyond this year. The United States and Europe must actively support Ukraine's campaign of long-range strikes against Russia's defense and energy sectors, tightening sanctions against the Russian energy sector and encouraging the strengthening of Kiev's long-range strike capabilities. These are other necessary steps. At the same time, Europe must not underestimate the risk of Russian hybrid attacks and must prevent Moscow from conducting sabotage operations or drone strikes. Russia, the analyses note, is prepared to accept the increased risks associated with such attacks, largely because it does not perceive the European or NATO response as a real deterrent.
international/foreign
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