Adnkronos (Adnkronos) – The anticyclone regime will hold or widespread precipitation will arrive in the northwestern regions. Experts predict two possible weather scenarios, explaining that the weather forecast for the weekend presents a margin of uncertainty, linked to different possibilities outlined by the main mathematical models.
Lorenzo Tedici, media meteorologist at iLMeteo.it, confirms that stable, mild, and mostly sunny weather will prevail until Saturday, with occasional cloud cover but no associated precipitation.
The forecast for Sunday, a holiday, still shows conflicting forecasts.
The trajectory of a Northern European disturbance
The forecasting difficulty stems from a disturbance descending from the North Sea. Most mathematical models assume a trajectory oriented toward Spain, a development that would maintain atmospheric stability over Italy.
On the contrary, the European ECMWF model predicts a more easterly descent: in this scenario we would see a worsening in the North-West, with precipitation estimated on average between 20 and 50 mm/24h between Liguria, Piedmont and Valle d'Aosta.
This physiological dispersion of trajectories is typical of perturbations with an easterly component (the so-called retrograde motion), which are complex to frame for numerical processing.
Two scenarios are currently foreseen: the maintenance of the anticyclonic regime or the arrival of widespread precipitation (up to 50 mm/24h) in the north-western regions.
The expected weather between Friday and Saturday
Meanwhile, Friday will be characterized by a decrease in winds in the south, local showers confined to lower Calabria, some clouds in Sicily and the north-west, and sunny weather across the rest of the country.
On Saturday, the approach of the northern European low-pressure system will favor the activation of Sirocco currents, with increased cloud cover over the western Alps and the major islands. Sunny skies will prevail over the rest of the peninsula, with highs reaching 23-24°C, approximately 3-4°C higher than the seasonal average.
Evolution for Sunday and the new week
The forecast for Sunday, October 18, requires further confirmation. If the unstable scenario materialises, precipitation (with estimated accumulations of around 15-20 mm/24 hours) could also affect Tuscany and the major islands, with some precipitation continuing into Monday.
For the next week, models indicate a possible new unstable entry by Wednesday towards Sardinia, the central part of the Mediterranean, and the Adriatic coast; however, given the high variability of the short-term synoptic pattern, the longer-term trend will require further updates.
Friday the 16th. In the North: stable weather with passing clouds. In the Center: clear or partly cloudy skies. In the South and on the Islands: variable weather with isolated showers in Lower Calabria, occasionally in the Messina area; winds decreasing.
Saturday the 17th. In the North: Increasing clouds over the western Alps; sunny elsewhere with mild weather. In the Center: Stable and mostly sunny weather with highs reaching 23-24°C. In the South and on the Islands: Cloudy conditions over the major islands due to sirocco winds; some showers in Sicily.
Sunday the 18th. In the North: worsening in the northwest with rain in Liguria, Piedmont, and the Aosta Valley (expected accumulations of 20-50 mm/24 hours, to be confirmed); dry in the northeast. In the Center: variable cloud cover with possible rain in Tuscany. In the South and on the islands: unstable with showers on the major islands; partly cloudy elsewhere.
Outlook: Monday, rain in the Northwest. A strong front arrives Tuesday.
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