Adnkronos (Adnkronos) – As the heating season approaches, the importance of raw materials once again becomes crucial, especially for families with high gas consumption, particularly those with independent heating. New data from the Segugio.it Observatory, updated to October 5, 2026, compares protected market, fixed-price free market, and variable offers to understand which elements to check before winter.
For gas, the Vulnerability Protection Service monitors wholesale market trends monthly; for electricity, the Enhanced Protection conditions are updated quarterly. Effective October 1, 2026, Arera has increased the reference price for electricity for the typical vulnerable customer by 37,3% for the quarters of October, November, and December 2026.
In a context of once again tense prices, what makes the difference are above all the annual consumption and the economic conditions already in force in one's contract.
Where is the expiration date? The end of the discounted rate is indicated on the front page and in the offer box on your electricity and gas bill, where the effective date also appears. This is distinct from the duration of the contract, which may be indefinite. For those who use gas for heating, this date determines whether the price will remain fixed throughout the winter or whether it will need to be renewed during the peak consumption months.
Three months in advance, check the supplier's communication. If different pricing conditions are offered upon expiration, the seller must send a written communication at least three months in advance. These are usually dedicated communications, recognizable by titles such as "Renewal Proposal with Changed Pricing Conditions." They include the offer's expiration date, the new prices and validity period, the offer code, the estimated new annual cost, and instructions for rejecting the renewal and canceling. They can arrive via email, post, or another agreed-upon durable medium; therefore, they shouldn't be searched for simply as an attachment to the bill. This is the right time to compare the proposal with available offers.
For electricity, Arera has defined a procedure that reduces the technical switchover to 24 hours of a business day for non-defaulting residential customers, with the entire switchover being completed within three weeks. The deadline therefore remains an important piece of information to check early, especially if the fixed rate ends during peak consumption months. Comparison sites like Segugio.it simplify this entire decision-making process with their bill analysis tool. Simply upload your latest bill, and an AI-assisted algorithm will analyze your consumption and the current rate, compare it with the best rates on the market, and tell you whether you can save and how much. If you already have the best rate, the system will clearly indicate this.
Currently, 8 out of 10 users do not have the best rate and can save an average of approximately €140 per year per supply point. Data is based on over fifteen thousand bills analyzed each month. Simulations by the Segugio.it Observatory confirm that consumption levels impact the comparison results. In Milan, for a family that also uses gas for heating and consumes 900 cubic meters per year, the estimated annual cost with the Vulnerability Protection Service is €1.399,76, compared to €1.242,37 with the best fixed-price gas offer on the free market found: a saving of €157,39, or 11,2%.
With 220 Smc per year, a profile without heating, the situation is reversed, but the difference is minimal: €400,67 with the protected market and €402,36 with the best fixed price. In this case, the protected market costs €1,69 less (+0,4% for the fixed price). It should be noted, however, that the price of gas for vulnerable customers varies on a monthly basis; therefore, it will fluctuate in the coming winter months. ARERA has established that starting October 1, 2026, the electricity bill of the typical vulnerable customer in the protected market will increase by 37,3% compared to the previous quarter. The reference price rises to 43,43 euro cents/kWh, taxes included. However, Segugio.it simulations show that consumption levels are also crucial for electricity.
With 1.200 kWh per year, the estimated cost is nearly identical: €471,03 for the Standardized Service and €473,25 for the best fixed price. At 2.700 kWh, however, the fixed price drops to €825,77 versus €896,13 for the Standardized Service: €70,36 less, or 7,9%. To see if your price is competitive, you can compare electricity offers and, for gas, fixed-price offers. For vulnerable customers, the price fluctuates on a quarterly basis, so it will remain constant in October, November, and December. It will then be updated by ARERA for January-March 2027. For non-vulnerable residential customers remaining in the Standardized Service, the consumption component follows the market monthly, no longer every three months as with the Standardized Service. Arera also indicates a negative annual fixed fee of -73,5737 euros/year: a particularly favorable element for those who consume little, because instead of having a cost regardless of the kWh used, they will receive a discount.
For this reason, switching to the free market shouldn't be evaluated solely by looking at the price per kWh. With high consumption, it can be helpful to compare a very competitive fixed offer; with very low consumption, however, the negative fixed portion of the STG may make the switch less worthwhile. It's important to remember that the best fixed offers on the free market have fixed fees ranging between €6 and €12 per month for each supply.
Paolo Benazzi, managing director of Utilities and Segugio.it, comments: "Electricity and gas rates are once again expensive. These aren't incidental costs, so inertia or lack of awareness can cost up to €120 a year. Our data shows that the majority of consumers don't have a competitive electricity/gas product. While the matter is still complicated, it's important to dig deeper, at least to be aware of how much we're paying. Those who prudently signed up for a fixed price in the past few months, perhaps choosing the best fixed rate on the free market, now have their price locked in for the entire winter at unbeatable conditions, absolutely unthinkable today."
"This is why it's important to always keep your bill 'optimized,' that is, at very competitive market prices. Those still on variable prices should seek timely information, especially if they consume a lot. Many free market providers are making a significant effort to offer a fixed price in such uncertain conditions. To do so, some of them expose themselves to significant financial risk, which we believe is commendable and rarely discussed. It's important to take advantage of these fixed products to protect yourself from fluctuations," he concludes.
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