Adnkronos (Adnkronos) – A poche ore dalle elezioni di midterm di martedì 3 novembre, la battaglia tra democratici e repubblicani non si gioca soltanto sul controllo del Congresso, ma anche sulla guida degli Stati americani. Quest’anno si eleggono i governatori di 36 Stati e il voto potrebbe consentire ai democratici di conquistare la maggioranza dei governatorati per la prima volta dal 2010.
Attualmente i repubblicani ne controllano 26, contro i 24 dei democratici, ma il clima politico sfavorevole al presidente Donald Trump ha reso competitive anche alcune roccaforti conservatrici. Secondo le ultime valutazioni del Cook Political Report, pubblicate il 27 ottobre, i democratici potrebbero strappare ai repubblicani tra due e quattro governatorati, mentre quattro competizioni sono classificate come toss-up, senza un chiaro favorito.
La posta in gioco va ben oltre gli equilibri politici locali.
I governatori esercitano un ruolo determinante su questioni come immigrazione, aborto, sanità, istruzione e politiche fiscali, oltre ad avere importanti responsabilità nell’amministrazione elettorale. Chi sarà eletto a novembre sarà inoltre in carica durante le presidenziali del 2028, quando gli Stati torneranno al centro delle battaglie sulle regole di voto e sulla ridefinizione dei collegi elettorali.
Ecco le principali sfide da seguire.
GEORGIA
After more than twenty years of Republican rule, Democrats are aiming to reclaim one of the most contested states in the country. Outgoing Governor Brian Kemp cannot run again due to term limits, and the contenders for the presidency are former Democratic Atlanta mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms and Republican billionaire Rick Jackson. Jackson secured the GOP nomination by defeating Trump-backed Burt Jones in the primary, thanks in part to a campaign funded with over $100 million of his own money. Polls are looking extremely close, classified as a toss-up by the Cook Political Report. A victory for Bottoms would mark the Democrats' return to the leadership of Georgia after 23 years and would make her the first African-American woman elected governor in US history.
OHIO
Once the quintessential swing state, Ohio has become a Republican playground in recent years, so much so that Trump won the 2024 presidential election by an 11-point margin. This time, however, the state is playing host to one of the most surprising battles of these midterms. The contest is between Republican Vivek Ramaswamy, a businessman and former White House candidate supported by the president, and Democrat Amy Acton, the former state health director during the Covid-19 pandemic. What was initially expected to be a comfortable victory for the GOP has turned into a particularly bitter head-to-head contest, marked also by controversy over Ramaswamy's campaign ad featuring Acton's mother, which urged voters not to vote for her daughter. Contributing to the uncertainty of the contest are discontent over the cost of living, concerns about healthcare, and the economic consequences of the war in Iran. According to an average of five polls published by 270toWin, Acton is at 47,6%, compared to Ramaswamy's 45,6%. The 60-year-old's victory would return a Democrat to the Ohio leadership for the first time in twenty years.
NEVADA
In a state traditionally swinging between the two parties, but which for years had shown a slight Democratic tilt before Trump's victory in 2024, Republican Governor Joe Lombardo is seeking a second term against Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford. Both have already demonstrated their ability to win voters at the state level, and polls paint an uncertain picture. The campaign focuses primarily on housing costs, economic growth, and funding for public services. For Democrats, regaining the governorship would represent a particularly significant achievement in a state where the party already controls both seats in the federal Senate. This contest is also classified as a toss-up by the Cook Political Report.
WISCONSIN
It's one of the most closely watched races in the Midwest, following Democratic Governor Tony Evers' decision not to seek a third term. The contenders are David Crowley, Milwaukee County Executive and a moderate Democrat, and Republican Congressman Tom Tiffany, supported by Trump. The cost of living, energy policies, and the development of large data centers are among the main campaign issues. Crowley is proposing measures to expand healthcare access and make housing more affordable, while Tiffany is focusing primarily on tax cuts. The latest polls indicate a close race, with some readings favoring the Democrat. The Cook Political Report keeps the race in the toss-up category, while other analyses point to a slight shift toward Democrats, despite Trump's victory in the state in 2024.
ALASKA
Even one of the most solidly Republican states risks a political shift. Incumbent Governor Mike Dunleavy is barred from running again, and the race pits Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins against three Republicans: Bernadette Wilson, a Trump-backed candidate, former Anchorage Mayor Dave Bronson, and former State Attorney General Treg Taylor. Making the contest particularly unpredictable is Alaska's electoral system, which features ranked-preference voting, allowing voters to rank candidates according to their preferences. The presence of several conservative candidates could therefore prove decisive. Trump, who believes "you have to have an IQ of 190 to understand how an Alaska ballot works," has called on Republicans to rally around Wilson, fearing that internal divisions could favor Kreiss-Tomkins. The Cook Political Report has moved the race to the Lean Democrat category, giving the Democratic candidate an advantage, despite the race still being open. A victory for him would be historic: the last Democratic governor of Alaska was Tony Knowles, who served from 1994 to 2002.
TEXAS
Even in the historic Republican stronghold of Texas, the governorship race appears more closely contested than expected. Greg Abbott is seeking a fourth consecutive term against Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa, who hopes to end a Republican dominance of more than thirty years. The last Democrat to govern Texas was Ann Richards, who was defeated in 1994 by George W. Bush, son of former President George H.W. Bush and future White House incumbent. Since then, no Democrat has managed to win the state's governorship. This year, however, the race appears more open, especially in the wake of the hotly contested Senate race between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton. An Emerson College poll conducted between October 17 and 19 gives Abbott 49% of the vote to Hinojosa 45%, while a Fox News poll puts the incumbent governor at 52% and the Democratic challenger at 47%. The Cook Political Report continues to rank the race as Lean Republican, with Abbott still a slight favorite.
NEW MEXICO
In New Mexico, Democrat Deb Haaland is poised to become the first Native American woman to hold the office of governor in US history. A former congresswoman and Interior Secretary in Joe Biden's administration, Haaland enjoys a solid lead in the polls, and her candidacy has mobilized and ignited enthusiasm among the state's indigenous communities. While aware of the symbolic significance of a potential election, she explained that she is primarily focused on the final days of the campaign. "Sometimes I forget that I could become the first Native American woman," she said in a recent interview. "We're in the midst of a statewide election campaign, we're very busy, and we're trying to be everywhere at once." According to polls, she is ahead of Republican Gregg Hull by at least 7 percentage points.
IOWA AND KANSAS
Signs of growing competition are also coming from the Republican heartland of the Midwest. In Iowa, where Governor Kim Reynolds is leaving office, Democrat Rob Sand faces Republican Zach Lahn in a race where polls and electoral analysis indicate a Democratic lead. Sand is thus aiming to restore his party's leadership in a state that has shifted significantly toward Republicans in recent years. Even more surprising is the case of Kansas, where the GOP is seeking to regain the governorship after eight years of Democrat Laura Kelly, who was unable to run again. Kansas is one of two races that the Cook Political Report shifted toward the Democrats in its latest update of October 27, reclassifying it from Lean Republican to Toss-Up. If the Democrats were to sweep one or both states, it would be a real coup, given that Trump won in 2024 by 13 points (Iowa) and 16 points (Kansas).
OREGON, MICHIGAN AND ARIZONA
Finally, there are also races in which Democrats must defend governorships already controlled by the party. In Oregon, incumbent Governor Tina Kotek is being pursued by Republican Christine Drazan, who is aiming to end 39 years of Democratic rule. Polls show the Democrats retaining a slight lead, but within the margin of error. In Michigan, Democrat Jocelyn Benson is seeking to succeed Governor Gretchen Whitmer against Republican John James, with excellent odds despite the uncertainty posed by the presence of independent Mike Duggan. Finally, in Arizona, Democratic Governor Katie Hobbs is on course for re-election against conservative Congressman Andy Biggs, in a campaign dominated by immigration, border security with Mexico, and the cost of living. In all three states, the Cook Political Report's polls place Democrats ahead, but the game isn't over.
international/foreign
webinfo@adnkronos.com (Web Info)