Adnkronos (Adnkronos) – Midterm elections historically represent one of the most difficult tests for an incumbent American president and often mark a negative watershed moment for his administration. Donald Trump knows this well, struggling with unfavorable polls and intent on convincing Republican voters to vote tomorrow, Tuesday, November 3rd, as if his name were on the ballot.
"The president always loses midterm elections, no matter the reason. Whoever he is, Republican, Democrat, great or terrible, for some reason," the tycoon himself admitted. In an effort to rally a base that doesn't appear entirely enthusiastic about his work, Trump even promised a $5 check to every adult American citizen if the GOP manages to maintain control of the House and Senate.
A proposal costing billions and still lacking a defined financing plan. History, moreover, confirms the president's concerns: since World War II, the White House party has lost seats in the House of Representatives in 18 of the 20 midterm elections.
Midterm elections, today considered almost a 'mission impossible' for those in government, have a history spanning over two centuries.
The first took place in 1790-1791, during the presidency of George Washington, when the United States was still a young republic and the two major parties that dominate the political scene today did not exist. At the time, Congress was divided primarily between supporters and opponents of the Washington administration, with the former managing to maintain control of both chambers. The first major contest between Republicans and Democrats would not come until 1858, under the presidency of Democrat James Buchanan. On that occasion, the GOP, founded just four years earlier and still represented on ballots by the eagle (the elephant would not arrive until 1874), won a greater number of seats than the Democrats, but did not, on its own, secure an absolute majority in the House. Moving on to the modern era, the record for presidents is particularly severe: from 1934 to 2022, the White House party managed to gain seats in the House only three times out of 23, in 1934 with Franklin Delano Roosevelt, in 1998 with Bill Clinton and in 2002 with George W. Bush.
Looking back over the past few decades, in 1990, George H.W. Bush's Republicans lost eight seats in the House and one in the Senate, amid growing economic hardship. Four years later, one of the heaviest defeats in recent history arrived: midway through Bill Clinton's first term, the Democrats lost 54 seats in the House and eight in the Senate, handing Republicans control of both houses of Congress. It was the so-called "Republican revolution," led by Newt Gingrich and his Contract with America program, that ended forty years of Democratic dominance in the House. The main factors were Clinton's difficulties with health care reform and the renewed mobilization of conservative voters. A setback, surprising in its magnitude, that forced the 42nd president to profoundly rethink his political strategy.
Clinton, however, managed to reverse the situation in 1998, leading to one of the rare victories for the party of an incumbent president. Despite the Monica Lewinsky scandal and the impeachment proceedings initiated by the Republicans, the Democrats won four seats in the House of Representatives without losing ground in the Senate. Their advantage was the strength of the American economy and the growing intolerance among part of the electorate towards the Republican offensive against the president. An even more favorable outcome came in 2002, when George W. Bush, riding the wave of patriotic mobilization following the September 11 attacks, saw the Republicans gain eight seats in the House and two in the Senate, regaining control of the latter. It was the last time that the party of an incumbent president managed to win seats in both chambers during the midterm elections. But four years later, in 2006, the landscape changed radically: discontent over the Iraq war, the handling of Hurricane Katrina, and political scandals cost the Republicans 30 seats in the House and six in the Senate, allowing the Democrats to regain control of Congress. A defeat that Bush himself bluntly acknowledged, admitting he had taken a "real beating" (thumping).
Even more severe was the verdict at the polls for Barack Obama in 2010, just two years after his historic election to the White House. In the midst of the economic hardship following the Great Recession and faced with the conservative Tea Party movement mobilizing against the president's strongly supported healthcare reform, Obamacare, the Democrats lost 63 seats in the House and six in the Senate. A debacle that Obama himself called a "shellacking" and which handed the House to the GOP. The president suffered another defeat in 2014, when his party lost 13 seats in the House and nine in the Senate, leaving Republicans in control of both houses of Congress. This was a manifestation of the so-called six-year itch, according to which voters historically tend to punish the presidential party midway through their second term.
Not even Donald Trump managed to escape the rule during his first term. In 2018, the Democrats won 41 seats in the House, wresting control from the Republicans, thanks largely to the mobilization of voters opposed to the president and the support they gained in suburban districts. The GOP, however, managed to gain two seats in the Senate, taking advantage of a favorable electoral map. The tycoon nevertheless spoke of a "huge success," touting the Senate result despite losing the House. Four years later, in 2022, Joe Biden also surprisingly managed to limit the damage: despite high inflation, low approval ratings, and the specter of a possible Republican surge, the Democrats lost only nine seats in the House and gained one in the Senate, maintaining control of the latter. Their success was fueled by the mobilization of voters following the Supreme Court ruling that struck down the constitutional protection of abortion rights, and by concerns raised by Republican candidates challenging the legitimacy of the 2020 elections.
“Being president is like riding a tiger. You have to keep riding it or it will devour you. And in the midterms, the public always seems ready to give the rider a whack.” This is how Harry Truman commented in 1946 on his heavy electoral defeat against the backdrop of postwar difficulties. Even more scathing was Lyndon B. Johnson, who in 1966, just two years after his presidential triumph, saw the Democrats lose ground in Congress, also penalized by growing discontent over the Vietnam War: “One day they carry you triumphantly on their shoulders, and the next day they use you as a target practice. In the midterms, people don't vote for what you did yesterday, but for the anger they feel today.”
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