Adnkronos (Adnkronos) – "The high energy prices are worrying but shouldn't cause alarm. At other times, we would have seen significantly higher levels." This is how Alessandro Marangoni explained the effects of the new increases in gas and oil prices to Adnkronos. "In the immediate future, with limited budgetary margins," he continued, "the government can intervene on fuel excise taxes, but on a structural level, the priority must be accelerating the energy transition to reduce dependence on foreign countries and fossil fuels."
“Nuclear power is a medium- to long-term solution,” he added, “but not an answer to the current emergency.”
Oil above $100 and European gas around $78. Is this a geopolitical flash, or are we at the beginning of a new phase?
There's no doubt that geopolitical factors are particularly relevant right now. We see this in the price volatility and performance of oil and gas in recent months, which has followed news about the possibility of opening or closing the Gulf's supply taps.
I don't think we're facing a turning point, however: it's probably another of the ups and downs we've already seen in recent months. And let's not forget that, compared to the extraordinary peaks of the 1970s oil crisis, we're still at relatively low prices.
What is the price level that should start to worry you?
“We are close.
One hundred dollars a barrel is not a small price: historically, the European economy can tolerate levels in the range of 70-80 dollars. But for Italy, the main concern is gas, which is dangerously moving back toward 80 euros per megawatt hour. This is a truly worrying level for businesses.
How exposed is Italy compared to other major European countries?
Italy's exposure is significant. Not so much for oil, because, with a few exceptions, most European countries depend on imports, but again for gas. Some European countries have greater resources, while we are heavily dependent on gas both for the competitiveness of our industrial system and for our citizens' bills.
Which sectors are most at risk right now?
"Definitely electricity generation, which in our country relies heavily on gas. We estimate that around 70% of market hours set gas prices, compared to just over half in other countries like Spain. Beyond the clichés, rather than energy-intensive companies, which have specific measures in place, I'm thinking primarily of small and medium-sized businesses operating in sectors not strictly speaking considered energy-intensive, but where energy costs still have a significant impact. Let's not forget, moreover, that all of this has a significant impact on transportation costs and, consequently, on all sectors and product prices."
With limited public resources, where should the government focus its intervention: on household bills, on supporting businesses, or on investments to structurally reduce energy costs?
Unfortunately, the Italian government has very limited room for maneuver due to budgetary concerns. Given the current price situation and the refining market, it's right to focus on fuel excise duties, especially considering that some of the resources can be recovered through VAT.
And on a structural level, what should be the priority?
"More generally, the government should dedicate not only resources, but also regulatory and political efforts to accelerating the energy transition. It's the only way to structurally reduce energy dependence on foreign countries and fossil fuels."
Can this crisis accelerate the transition to renewables, or is there a risk that, in this emergency, gas, coal, and traditional sources will return to the forefront?
I believe it's crucial to accelerate the transition. Resources like coal have been correctly maintained as a backup, but as a last resort in the event of a shortage. Today, however, the problem isn't so much the risk of a supply shortage as the risk associated with prices. Gas and oil aren't strictly speaking in short supply, but their costs are increasingly high. Therefore, we need to accelerate the transition and, in the immediate future, implement some stopgap measures, such as those on fuels.
What role could nuclear power play?
Nuclear power, if the technology develops in the desired direction, could represent a structural solution, but only in the medium to long term. There's talk of next-generation plants reaching commercial status in about ten years. Between now and then, we might even be back to $20 oil and €20 gas: we can't know. It could therefore be an interesting technological solution, but not a response to the current emergency.
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